The Canadian Index

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July 2026

Bar chart showing Canada's quarterly prescribed interest rate holding steady at 3 percent from 2022 through 2026.

The CRA's prescribed rate has held at 3% for a fifth consecutive quarter, its lowest sustained level since the current cycle began in 2022.

CUSMA's Deadline Passed. For Business Owner Clients, the Real Change Is That It Now Repeats Every Year.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold spot prices from June 22 to July 20, 2026.

WTI crude has climbed 2.1% to $83.48 as the conflict's confirmed U.S.

Oil Spiked Past $85 as the War's U.S. Death Toll Hit 17. It Gave Back Most of the Move by Noon.

July 20, 2026

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Bar chart showing TSX-listed energy, gold mining, and bank stocks moving in opposite directions in a single July 2026 session.

Energy names like Tourmaline Oil gained on the crude spike, but those gains were offset by losses across gold miners and Canada's big five…

TSX energy, gold miners, and bank stocks move in opposite directions

July 18, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold prices as they diverged after the US-Iran truce collapse in July 2026.

WTI crude oil climbed to $81.78 a barrel, up 16% over the week, after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and Washington reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports.

WTI crude oil and gold prices diverge after Iran truce collapse

July 18, 2026

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Bar chart showing same-day percentage moves for individual TSX-listed companies on July 17, 2026.

The TSX closed down 0.15% Thursday, a headline figure that conceals sharper moves underneath: energy strength offset weakness in gold…

Gold's Refusal to Rally on a Collapsed Ceasefire Is the Market's Verdict on This War

July 17, 2026

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Dual line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold prices during escalating Middle East conflict.

WTI crude settled near $82.15, up about 4.1%, its strongest close in a month, as the interim ceasefire between the US and Iran unravelled…

Gold's Refusal to Rally on a Collapsed Ceasefire Is the Market's Verdict on This War

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing the TSX Composite's daily close reversing from a record high over one week.

The TSX closed Thursday down 0.21%, pulling back from Wednesday's record close after the materials sector fell 3.4% to its lowest level…

The TSX Ends the Week Almost Exactly Where It Started. Getting There Took a Record High and a 76-Point Reversal.

July 17, 2026

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Bar chart showing daily barrel capacity of Gulf oil bypass pipelines exposed to a Red Sea shipping threat.

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline moves roughly 5.8 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and has been the main reason oil has…

Iran's New Threat to the Red Sea Targets the One Route That Has Kept Oil From Spiking Further

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's annual inflation rate climbing to 3.2 percent in May 2026.

Headline inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, its fastest pace since December 2023, pushing the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 inflation…

The Bank of Canada Raised Its Inflation Forecast and Cut Its Growth Forecast in the Same Report. Macklem Called It the Best News All Year.

July 17, 2026

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Line chart comparing Canada's 3-month Treasury bill yield to 5-year and 10-year bond yields.

The three-month Treasury bill that sets the CRA's quarterly prescribed rate has moved just 4 basis points since March, even as five-year…

The Prescribed Rate Has Held at 3% for Five Quarters. The Short End of the Curve Says a Sixth Is Coming.

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing BlackBerry shares falling 14.23 percent on Thursday after a months-long rally.

BlackBerry's 14.23% Thursday drop to $12.84 followed a months-long rally built on QNX automotive software momentum.

BlackBerry Fell 14 Per Cent Thursday. Its Own Executives Had Already Started Selling.

July 17, 2026

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Bar chart comparing seven benchmark assets showing a divergence across gold, oil, and financial markets on July 16, 2026.

Gold fell $52.70 and broke below $4,000 the same morning a live production-risk event hit Iran's main oil export terminal, the opposite of…

Gold Breaks Below $4,000 as Seven Assets Diverge in One Session

July 16, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil and gold futures prices daily from June 24 to July 16, 2026.

WTI's climb from the low $70s in early July to above $80 this week tracks the Hormuz escalation timeline closely, culminating Thursday…

WTI Crude and Gold Diverge Through the Hormuz Escalation

July 16, 2026

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Bar chart showing TSX energy stocks rallying while gold mining stocks like Franco-Nevada fell in mid-July 2026.

The index's heavy energy weighting and light technology exposure let it benefit this week from a trade that hurt most other major benchmarks.

The TSX Keeps Climbing on Oil. Its Gold Miners Are Paying For It.

July 16, 2026

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Bar chart showing how oil, gold, the Canadian dollar and bond yields moved since the July 2026 Hormuz ceasefire collapse.

Kharg Island handles roughly 90 per cent of Iran's crude exports, about 1.5 million barrels a day, and Washington has threatened to strike…

The 1.5 Million Barrels That Would Disappear If Kharg Island Is Struck

July 16, 2026

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Line chart showing US year over year CPI inflation cooling to 3.5 percent in June 2026 from a 4.2 percent peak.

The cooling marks the largest monthly drop in US inflation since April 2020, yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed this week that the…

The Hawkish Talk Arrived After the Inflation Number Had Already Turned

July 16, 2026

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Line chart comparing the CRA prescribed rate to the Government of Canada five-year bond yield from June to July 2026.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed rate for family loans has held at 3 per cent for five straight quarters, set from the prior quarter's Treasury bill auctions.

The Widening Gap Between the Prescribed Rate and the Renewal Wall

July 16, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold spot prices from June 16 to July 16, 2026, showing WTI up 16 percent.

Gold and WTI crude are reacting to the same Hormuz conflict headlines in opposite directions, a split behavioural economists call mental…

The Mental Accounting Gap Between Gold and This Week's Oil Spike

July 16, 2026

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Chart comparing same-day moves across eight assets as gold fell and Brent crude rose on Iran's expanded export threat.

Wednesday's cross-asset move looked calm on the surface, but Iran's Revolutionary Guard had just extended its threat beyond the Strait of…

Warsh and the Bank of Canada Both Cited a CPI Print Built on a Ceasefire That Had Already Ended

July 15, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil prices from mid-June to mid-July 2026, including the July 13 price jump.

June's US inflation reading cooled to 3.5 percent, partly on a nearly 10 percent drop in gasoline prices tied to a brief Hormuz ceasefire.

Warsh and the Bank of Canada Both Cited a CPI Print Built on a Ceasefire That Had Already Ended

July 15, 2026

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Bar chart comparing the TSX Composite's narrow daily range this week against sharper swings in major US stock indices.

US indices swung far more than the TSX this week: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off Monday on a semiconductor-driven AI spending scare, then…

The TSX Traded a Narrower Range Than Wall Street on Both Sides of This Week's Selloff and Rebound

July 15, 2026

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Bar chart showing a split market reaction across twelve assets after Iran threatened to halt regional energy exports.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened this week to halt all energy exports from the Middle East, not just shipping through the Strait of…

Iran's Threat Just Moved From Controlling the Strait to Threatening the Whole Gulf's Oil

July 15, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Step chart showing how the federal small business deduction limit drops to zero as passive investment income rises from $50,000 to $150,000.

This week's energy rally, with Canadian Natural, Suncor, and Cenovus all posting strong single-session gains, adds directly to a CCPC's adjusted aggregate investment income.

This Week's Oil Rally Is Quietly Setting Up Next Year's Small Business Deduction Grind

July 15, 2026

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