The Canadian Index

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July 2026

Line chart showing the VIX volatility index falling to 16.50 as investors react less to each new Hormuz war escalation.

Investors have been trading through this conflict for four months, and each new escalation now moves markets less than the last.

Investors Have Stopped Flinching at the Hormuz War, and the Data Proves It

July 15, 2026

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Chart showing most major assets recovering Tuesday afternoon after Monday's Hormuz-driven market shock.

Most major assets tracked here turned positive Tuesday afternoon, a broad reversal from Monday's Hormuz-driven selloff, after Washington…

Today Split Monday's Hormuz Shock Into Two Separate Risks, and Only One of Them Got Resolved

July 14, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold spot prices from late June through mid-July 2026.

Washington dropped its proposed toll on Gulf shipping Tuesday afternoon, replacing it with trade commitments from Gulf states, even as the…

Today Split Monday's Hormuz Shock Into Two Separate Risks, and Only One of Them Got Resolved

July 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Tuesday morning stock index moves across global markets, led by South Korea's Kospi decline.

The TSX Composite closed lower Monday even as oil prices spiked sharply on the reinstated Hormuz blockade, as weakness in financials and materials offset strength in energy names.

Oil Jumped 9.6% Monday. The TSX Still Closed Lower.

July 14, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil's 20% climb since July 1 amid the Hormuz shipping blockade.

WTI crude has climbed 20% since July 1 as the US reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, the second such measure since April following this weekend's ceasefire collapse.

Iran's Blockade Barely Touches Canadian Oil. The Toll on Everyone Else Might.

July 14, 2026

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Line chart tracking US headline and core CPI inflation cooling from December 2025 through June 2026.

June's US inflation data reflects a month when the Middle East ceasefire was largely holding, conditions that reversed as oil prices jumped…

June's Inflation Print Was Genuinely Good News. It Was Also Already Out of Date.

July 14, 2026

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Line chart showing the CRA's prescribed interest rate for family loans holding steady at 3% since early 2025.

The CRA's prescribed rate for family income-splitting loans has held at 3% for five consecutive quarters, a rate that locks in at the loan's inception and applies for its full life.

The 3% Prescribed Rate Locks In Only If the Loan Is Made by September 30

July 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Brent crude oil's sharp jump to the near-flat moves in equities, bonds, and the Canadian dollar.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports, confirmed to take effect at 4 p.m.

Oil Jumped Five Percent Tuesday. Almost Nothing Else Moved.

July 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing how eight financial assets reacted the same day as the Hormuz shipping toll announcement.

Eight assets moved in the same trading session Monday after the Strait of Hormuz toll announcement, and the pattern favoured rate proxies over the traditional geopolitical hedge.

A 20 Percent Toll Moved Oil More Than the Weekend's Strikes Did, and Gold Did Not Notice

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil prices jumping 8.7 percent to 77.61 dollars in mid July 2026.

WTI crude jumped 8.7% Monday afternoon to $77.61 a barrel, roughly double the size of the overnight move that followed the weekend's fourth wave of US strikes against Iran.

A 20 Percent Toll Moved Oil More Than the Weekend's Strikes Did, and Gold Did Not Notice

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing the TSX Composite index closing within 0.9 percent of its June 2026 record high.

The TSX Composite closed at 35,305.31 Friday, up 0.298% and within 0.9% of its June 17 record of 35,629.89, after Canada's June jobs report…

324 Points From a Record, the TSX Heads Into Its Busiest 48 Hours of the Summer

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing Brent crude oil completing a three week price round trip to 79.16 dollars.

Brent crude rose 4.1% Monday to $79.16 a barrel after a fourth wave of US strikes against Iran, met by Iranian retaliation against Bahrain,…

Iran Hit Three US Allies at Once This Weekend. The Shipping Data Tells a More Measured Story Than the Rhetoric Does.

July 13, 2026

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Bar chart showing nine of twelve Federal Reserve officials favouring interest rate hikes in June 2026.

Minutes from the June 16 to 17 Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, showed nine of twelve officials favouring higher…

The Fed's Internal Vote Just Turned Hawkish. The Bank of Canada Has Not Moved. Wednesday Puts Both on Display.

July 13, 2026

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Bar chart showing steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs reaching a 50 percent ceiling rate under Section 232.

Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper can reach 50% and sit entirely outside CUSMA's protection, a gap that matters more after…

CUSMA Was Not Renewed. Business Owner Clients Now Face Annual Reviews Instead of a Six Year Horizon.

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing gold prices falling 1.39 percent as US Treasury yields rise amid Strait of Hormuz tensions.

Gold fell 1.39% Monday to $4,063.91, even as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed following a fourth wave of US strikes over the weekend.

Gold Fell on the Worst Hormuz Escalation in Months. That Is Not a Contradiction.

July 13, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canadian energy stocks rising while financials, materials, and technology stocks fell on July 8, 2026.

The composite's decline masked a three-way split beneath it: energy gained on the same oil-driven sentiment lifting crude prices, while…

The Fed's Minutes and the Iran Escalation Landed on the Same Afternoon, and Gold Picked a Side

July 8, 2026

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Line chart comparing gold and WTI crude oil prices as they moved in opposite directions in early July 2026.

Gold fell even as Iran's declared ceasefire collapsed and its Revolutionary Guard struck more than eighty US installations in Bahrain and…

The Fed's Minutes and the Iran Escalation Landed on the Same Afternoon, and Gold Picked a Side

July 8, 2026

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Bar chart showing top TSX movers on July 7, with energy and oil-linked stocks up while two mining stocks fell sharply.

The split traces back to Wednesday's oil sanctions news, which lifted oil-linked names on the strength of WTI's jump to $74.35 while a…

TSX Energy Surged 4% While Mining Fell 8% on the Same Oil Shock, and the Divergence Is the Real Story

July 8, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 5.55 percent to $74.35 a barrel after Iranian tanker attacks near Hormuz.

The jump followed Iranian attacks on three tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier, after which the US Treasury…

The US Revoked Iran's Oil Licence After Three Tanker Attacks, and the Real Question Is Whether the June 17 Truce Survives

July 8, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's headline inflation climbing to 3.2 percent through May 2026, driven mainly by energy prices.

Canada's headline inflation climbed from 1.8 percent in February to 3.2 percent by May, a run the Bank of Canada has attributed largely to…

The Bank of Canada Has Looked Through Two Oil Shocks This Year Already. A Third Just Arrived Before July 15.

July 8, 2026

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Bar chart showing annual Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit payments reaching $1,890 for a family of four in 2026.

The Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit replaced the GST/HST credit on July 3, raising maximum payments by roughly twenty-five percent through 2031.

The Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit Started This Month, and It Changes the RRIF Withdrawal Math for Retiree Clients

July 8, 2026

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Line chart showing gold spot price falling to $4,054.97 amid Iran's Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks in July 2026.

Gold's drop came even as Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck three tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and the United States revoked Iran's oil…

Gold Fell 3% While Iran Attacked Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

July 8, 2026

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Bar chart comparing weekly percentage changes in Brent crude, the Canadian dollar, the TSX and gold for July 6 to 10, 2026.

This scorecard tracks four major Canadian-relevant assets over the week ending July 10, as Iran's strikes on four countries widened the war further than at any point since it began.

Weekly scorecard: Brent, CAD and TSX rise as gold falls despite widening war

July 11, 2026

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Line chart showing Brent crude oil prices from February to July 2026, spiking during the war then partially unwinding.

Brent crude closed the week at $76.01, up about 5 percent, after Iran struck Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan in a single day, the widest…

Brent crude gains 5% as Iran strikes widen war to four countries

July 11, 2026

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