The Canadian Index

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July 2026

Bar chart comparing the TSX, S&P 500, and Nasdaq daily and after-hours moves on July 22, 2026.

Canadian and US equities diverged sharply in the same session: the TSX composite closed up 208.96 points on gains in battery metals and…

The Nasdaq Sold Off Before Tesla and Alphabet Even Reported. Then Both Missed.

July 23, 2026

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Bar chart comparing same-day price moves across WTI crude, gold, the TSX, and the Nasdaq on July 22, 2026.

A new Houthi blockade threat near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closing the shipping route Saudi Arabia had used to route crude around Strait…

Saudi Arabia's Hormuz Workaround Just Became a Second Chokepoint Risk

July 23, 2026

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Line chart showing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve July rate hike falling from 46 percent to under 17 percent.

Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting have fallen from a peak above 46% to under 17% by July 21, per CME FedWatch data.

The Fed Odds Faded. The BoC's September Dilemma Didn't.

July 23, 2026

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Line chart showing the CRA prescribed interest rate holding at 3 percent for a fifth consecutive quarter.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed interest rate has held at 3% for five consecutive quarters, the lowest sustained level since 2022,…

The Oil Shock Could End the CRA's Cheapest Lending Window in Years

July 23, 2026

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Line chart showing the S&P/TSX Composite climbing toward a 52-week high during eleven nights of strikes on Iran.

The index has climbed toward a record high through eleven straight nights of strikes on Iran, a rally powered narrowly by gold miners and…

The Recency Trap in a War-Driven Rally

July 23, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Tuesday and Wednesday moves across gold, the TSX, and major US indexes, showing gold alone accelerating.

Every major index gained less Wednesday than it had Tuesday, and the Nasdaq reversed into an outright loss, even though Tuesday's rally and…

Every Major Index Cooled Wednesday Except Gold

July 22, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Wednesday afternoon price moves across oil, gold, and major stock indexes as Iran tensions escalated.

Commodities led Wednesday's cross-asset moves after President Trump dismissed near-term Iran negotiations and warned of possible strikes on…

Oil and Gold Jump as Iran Tensions Escalate Wednesday

July 22, 2026

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Bar chart ranking Tuesday's top TSX gainers, led by Celestica's 11.1 percent jump during a broad technology sector rally.

Celestica led all TSX movers Tuesday, jumping 11.1% on a broad U.S.

TSX Jumps 1.17% as Gold Miners Lead a Broad Commodity Rally

July 22, 2026

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Bar chart comparing new US tariff rates across Canadian export categories, showing energy and potash exempted while dairy faces 50 percent.

Three new Section 338 proclamations impose a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, targeting dairy, alcohol, and select…

The Tariffs That Missed Energy, Potash, and Critical Minerals

July 22, 2026

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Line chart tracking Bank of Canada rate decisions from January 2025 to July 2026, showing a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25 percent.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision, even as Canada's inflation cooled to 2.8% in June…

Canada's Inflation Cooled to 2.8%. The Bank of Canada Got More Hawkish Anyway.

July 22, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canada's best insured five-year fixed mortgage rate climbing to 3.99 percent in July 2026.

The best insured five-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 3.99% this week, up from 3.94% just five days earlier, even as the Bank of Canada…

Why Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Rising While the Bank of Canada Holds

July 22, 2026

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Line chart showing the TSX Composite rebounding 1.17 percent Tuesday after Monday's steepest one-day decline in over a week.

The TSX Composite closed up 1.17% Tuesday, rebounding from Monday's 0.86% drop, the index's first close below 35,000 in eight sessions.

The Monday Sell, the Tuesday Miss

July 22, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canada's five largest banks, led by CIBC, all declining between 1.9 and 2.6 percent on July 20, 2026.

All five of Canada's largest banks fell in tandem Monday, a rare instance of sector-wide alignment tied to the week's bond yield reaction.

A Kazakhstan Pipeline Strike, Not Hormuz, Just Broke Gold's Monthlong Anchor

July 21, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Tuesday's percentage gains across the TSX, S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, WTI crude, and gold, with commodities leading the move.

Every major asset traded higher Tuesday after a strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal disrupted exports from Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest crude suppliers.

A Kazakhstan Pipeline Strike, Not Hormuz, Just Broke Gold's Monthlong Anchor

July 21, 2026

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Bar chart ranking TSX stock movers on July 20, 2026, showing the five largest banks falling while energy and technology names advanced.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Monday at 34,960, down 0.86%, in a session split sharply along sector lines.

TSX Banks Fell Up to 2.6% Monday. Oil Is Already Giving Back Its Gains Tuesday

July 21, 2026

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Bar chart comparing WTI crude oil's price move across four time windows, from today's dip to a yearlong gain.

WTI crude eased slightly Tuesday after Iran's Foreign Ministry signalled that international mediators had proposed easing tensions with…

Saudi Arabia's Hormuz Workaround Now Has a Chokepoint Risk of Its Own

July 21, 2026

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate holding steady at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions into July 2026.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions, the endpoint of a cutting cycle that began in June 2024.

Fed Hike Odds Jumped to 80% in a Week. The Bank of Canada's Math Has Not Changed

July 21, 2026

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Line chart tracking the CRA's prescribed interest rate declining to a steady 3% through the third quarter of 2026.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed interest rate has held at 3% for five straight quarters, its longest stable stretch since 2020 and 2021.

The Prescribed Rate Has Not Moved in Five Quarters. That May Not Last Through Budget 2026

July 21, 2026

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Line chart showing gold's daily closing price holding nearly flat from June 22 to July 20, 2026 despite an intensifying Iran conflict.

Gold has moved just 1.1% over the past month even as the United States carried out its tenth consecutive night of strikes on Iran.

Gold Has Not Moved in a Month, Even as the Iran War Intensifies

July 21, 2026

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Bar chart showing TSX sector and stock moves Monday, led by declines in CIBC and National Bank.

TSX financials fell more than 1% Monday, led by a 2% decline in CIBC, even as fresh inflation data gave the Bank of Canada exactly the…

Core Inflation Broke Below Target for the First Time This Cycle. Bank Stocks Were the Only Ones That Did Not Believe It.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart showing Bank of Canada core inflation measures CPI-trim and CPI-median through June 2026.

Canada's core inflation measures broke below the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the first time this cycle in June, with CPI-trim falling to…

Core Inflation Broke Below Target for the First Time This Cycle. Bank Stocks Were the Only Ones That Did Not Believe It.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart indexing daily TSX and S&P 500 closes to 100 starting July 3, 2026.

The TSX and S&P 500 tracked each other closely from July 3 through last week before splitting on Friday and Monday.

TSX Falls 80 Points as Gold Miners Slide 3.5%. The S&P 500 Rose 0.6% on the Exact Same Day.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil prices at selected dates across five months of Iran conflict escalation.

WTI has climbed 2.1% to $83.48 as the IAEA examines a reported U.S.

Five Months of Strikes Hit Ports, Bridges and Tankers. This Weekend They Reportedly Hit a Nuclear Site.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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