The Canadian Index

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July 2026

Line chart comparing Brent and WTI crude oil prices through July's four-leg rally to $85.47.

Brent and WTI crude both surged in July, with WTI ending the month at $85.47, up 23.0%, after round-tripping from a five-month low near $68.74.

WTI and Brent crude surge in July as the Iran ceasefire collapses

July 31, 2026

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Line chart tracking the S&P/TSX Composite through July's ceasefire collapse, near-record rally, and late-month pullback to a 35,226 close.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed July at 35,226, up 1.06% for the month, a modest headline figure that conceals sharp intra-month swings.

S&P/TSX Composite closes July up 1.06% after a volatile month

July 31, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil daily closing prices showing a volatile week amid Hormuz tensions.

WTI crude steadied near $84 Friday after swinging more than $8 across the prior five sessions, on track for its largest monthly gain since…

WTI Crude Steadies Near $84 After a Volatile Week Tied to Hormuz Tensions

July 31, 2026

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Chart comparing daily moves across seven major assets, with gold the only one declining Friday.

Gold was the only decliner among seven major assets tracked Friday, slipping as the US dollar strengthened even though the TSX, the S&P…

Gold Was the Only Asset to Fall Friday, as Six Others Rose

July 31, 2026

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Bar chart of individual TSX stocks showing gold miners and bank shares leading a Thursday rebound.

The TSX Composite gained 172.06 points Thursday, recovering less than half of Wednesday's 415.92 point drop tied to the Fed's decision and renewed Iran strikes.

The TSX Gained 172 Points Thursday. Gold Miners and Bank Earnings Did the Work, Not a Broad Rally.

July 31, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil prices declining amid ongoing tension over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint oversight of the Strait of Hormuz on July 29, countering with a plan that keeps more control in…

Iran Rejected Oman's Hormuz Proposal. Oil Fell 9.5% the Same Week.

July 31, 2026

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate and the Federal Reserve target band through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate for a sixth consecutive meeting on July 15, citing energy driven inflation pressures that are…

The Bank of Canada Held at 2.25% for a Sixth Meeting. The Fed Held Too, but Three Votes Said No.

July 31, 2026

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Chart of gold futures prices, relevant to how gold is taxed differently across registered accounts.

Physical gold and silver bullion can be held inside a TFSA, RRSP, FHSA, RRIF, RESP or RDSP, but only at 99.5% purity and only while a trustee holds it on the client's behalf.

Gold Broke $4,100 This Morning. Where a Client Holds It Decides How Much of the Gain Survives Tax.

July 31, 2026

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Dual axis chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold prices moving in opposite directions the same week.

Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint oversight of the Strait of Hormuz on July 29, leaving the dispute unresolved even as vessel traffic…

Oil Fell 9.5% This Week. Gold Rose Through $4,100. Same Headline Did Both.

July 31, 2026

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Chart comparing same-day moves across the VIX, oil, gold, the Canadian dollar and the TSX against rate-hike odds on Thursday.

Wednesday's VIX spike had nearly fully unwound by early Thursday afternoon, a single-session round trip of roughly 13 percent.

The VIX Erased Wednesday's Spike. September Rate-Hike Odds Did Not Move With It.

July 30, 2026

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Intraday line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite recovering part of Wednesday's decline through Thursday afternoon trading.

The S&P/TSX Composite's recovery through Thursday's early afternoon comes despite little actual change in the underlying picture: the Fed's…

TSX Composite Claws Back Part of Wednesday's Selloff Through Thursday Afternoon

July 30, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite's daily close, showing Wednesday's sharp drop as financials fell and energy stocks gained.

Financials led Wednesday's TSX decline as higher bond yields pressured rate-sensitive names, with TD Bank down 3.2 percent and RBC down 3…

The TSX Fell 415 Points Wednesday. Energy Gained. Financials Did the Damage.

July 30, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil prices climbing back above $85 a barrel after overnight strikes on Iran.

US forces struck multiple sites inside Iran overnight, with explosions reported near Bandar Abbas and the Persian Gulf island of Kish, both close to the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Struck Iran Overnight. Tehran Says It Will Punish the Aggressor Today.

July 30, 2026

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Line chart tracking the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Wednesday, but three of twelve voting members dissented in favor of a hike,…

The Fed Held Rates Steady. Markets Just Priced In an Eleven Point Jump in September's Odds.

July 30, 2026

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Bar chart of TSX stocks with the largest percentage moves on Wednesday, led by a steep decline in Allied Gold.

Wednesday's selloff left several TSX names down sharply enough to open a tax-loss harvesting opportunity in non-registered and CCPC…

Wednesday's Selloff Opened a Loss Harvesting Window. Thursday's Rebound May Already Be Closing It.

July 30, 2026

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Bar chart showing the TSX Composite's daily point change over eleven sessions, including Wednesday's steep single-day decline.

Wednesday's drop followed a Fed decision split by three dissenting votes and a fresh round of strikes on Iran, while the VIX jumped 13.45…

Wednesday Erased Three Sessions of TSX Gains. Thursday Morning Is Already Erasing Wednesday.

July 30, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil's round trip from a June low to a new high near $92.

West Texas Intermediate crude has round tripped sharply over the past five weeks, from a post ceasefire trough near $69 on June 25 to a…

WTI Crude's Five-Week Round Trip, From Post-Ceasefire Low to War-Driven Rebound

July 29, 2026

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Bar chart of one-day asset moves after the Fed's hold, led by a 13 percent VIX spike.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate Wednesday, and every conventional market signal read hawkish: major US and Canadian equity…

The Fed Held Rates. Every Asset Except Gold and Oil Read It as Hawkish.

July 29, 2026

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Bar chart of Tuesday's top TSX movers, led by Celestica's 9.5 percent gain, on the index's record close.

Tuesday's record TSX close was built on technology strength, led by Celestica and Constellation Software, while energy and gold mining…

The TSX's Record Close Was Built Without Energy. Oil's 6% Overnight Jump Just Changed the Math.

July 29, 2026

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Weekly line chart showing WTI crude oil climbing 6.4 percent as Saudi Arabia joins strikes in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia joined US strikes against Iran aligned militia sites in Iraq overnight, its most direct combat role since the five month…

Iran's Missiles Were Intercepted. Saudi Arabia Joining the Strikes Was Not Supposed to Happen.

July 29, 2026

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Line chart showing CME FedWatch odds for a September Fed rate hike holding near 80 percent.

CME FedWatch odds for Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision swung between 10.7% and 46.5% over the two weeks leading up to the meeting, an unusually wide range for a single rate call.

Today's Fed Decision Is a Coin Flip. September's Already Isn't.

July 29, 2026

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Step chart showing the CRA prescribed interest rate holding at 3 percent for a fifth straight quarter.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed rate for family income splitting loans has held at 3.00% for a fifth consecutive quarter, calculated…

The Fed Decides Rates at 2 P.M. Today. Your Prescribed Rate Loan Was Decided in April and Isn't Moving.

July 29, 2026

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Line chart showing gold prices holding near $4,020 despite an overnight missile attack on US forces.

Iran's overnight missile attack on US forces sent oil prices sharply higher, yet gold barely moved from its prior close.

Oil Jumped 6% on Overnight Missiles. Gold Moved Half a Percent. The Gap Is the Story.

July 29, 2026

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Bar chart showing same-day percentage moves across six financial assets, including oil, gold, and the VIX, on July 28, 2026.

Energy and precious metals fell together Tuesday, but for different reasons rather than a single shared cause.

Energy and Precious Metals Fall Together for Different Reasons on July 28, 2026

July 28, 2026

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