Today's Fed Decision Is a Coin Flip. September's Already Isn't.

Line chart showing CME FedWatch odds for a September Fed rate hike holding near 80 percent.

CME FedWatch odds for Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision swung between 10.7% and 46.5% over the two weeks leading up to the meeting, an unusually wide range for a single rate call. Odds for a September move, by contrast, have held near 80% for most of that same stretch, largely unmoved by the swings in the nearer term number. The gap illustrates how markets can treat one Fed meeting as genuinely uncertain while already treating the next one as effectively decided.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates monthly from January to September 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold this year, citing strong second-quarter growth alongside rising inflation risk.

The Bank of Canada Has Held Seven Times This Year. The Fed Just Broke Its Own Pattern.

September 23, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada five-year bond yield climbing through August and September.

Canadian headline inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July, but the underlying number worsened: inflation…

The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To

September 21, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates through 2026, both held steady until now.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent through seven consecutive decisions this year, its longest stretch of stability in the current cycle.

Two Central Banks Held Steady All Year. One of Them Is About to Move.

September 14, 2026

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