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Line chart showing CME FedWatch odds for a September Fed rate hike holding near 80 percent.

CME FedWatch odds for Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision swung between 10.7% and 46.5% over the two weeks leading up to the meeting, an unusually wide range for a single rate call. Odds for a September move, by contrast, have held near 80% for most of that same stretch, largely unmoved by the swings in the nearer term number. The gap illustrates how markets can treat one Fed meeting as genuinely uncertain while already treating the next one as effectively decided.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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