The Canadian Index

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate and the Federal Reserve target band through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate for a sixth consecutive meeting on July 15, citing energy driven inflation pressures that are easing, with Canadian CPI slowing to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May. The Federal Reserve also held its target band on July 29, but the vote split 9-3, with three FOMC members dissenting in favour of a quarter point hike. The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.40 per US dollar afterward, as the Fed's hold caught traders positioned for a hike off guard.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart showing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve July rate hike falling from 46 percent to under 17 percent.

Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting have fallen from a peak above 46% to under 17% by July 21, per CME FedWatch data.

The Fed Odds Faded. The BoC's September Dilemma Didn't.

July 23, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Line chart tracking implied odds of a Fed rate hike alongside WTI crude oil prices from July 15 to July 28, 2026.

Markets still see a meaningful chance of a US interest rate hike this week, even though oil, a key driver of the recent inflation scare,…

Fed Hike Odds Have Barely Moved Even as Oil Fell 12%. Here Is Why That Gap Matters.

July 28, 2026

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Bar chart comparing same-session percentage moves across six assets following the July PCE inflation surprise.

Wednesday afternoon's hot US July PCE inflation print, which came in above forecast, reversed four sessions of falling Canadian and US bond yields within hours.

The July PCE Surprise Reversed Four Days of Falling Canadian Yields in One Afternoon

August 26, 2026

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Bar chart showing three Canadian banks' adjusted net income growth accelerating in Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings.

Scotiabank, BMO, and National Bank each posted accelerating year-over-year adjusted net income growth this week, with each report topping the one before it.

The July PCE Surprise Reversed Four Days of Falling Canadian Yields in One Afternoon

August 26, 2026

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Line chart showing gold futures climbing 5.1 percent over the week to settle at 4,661.60 dollars an ounce.

Gold settled the week at 4,661.60 dollars, up roughly 5.1%, its third straight weekly advance, after an expanded US Treasury bond buyback…

Gold Kept Its Gain After the Treasury Buyback That Triggered It Reversed

August 22, 2026

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