The Canadian Index

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Chart comparing same-day moves across eight assets as gold fell and Brent crude rose on Iran's expanded export threat.

Wednesday's cross-asset move looked calm on the surface, but Iran's Revolutionary Guard had just extended its threat beyond the Strait of…

Warsh and the Bank of Canada Both Cited a CPI Print Built on a Ceasefire That Had Already Ended

July 15, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil prices from mid-June to mid-July 2026, including the July 13 price jump.

June's US inflation reading cooled to 3.5 percent, partly on a nearly 10 percent drop in gasoline prices tied to a brief Hormuz ceasefire.

Warsh and the Bank of Canada Both Cited a CPI Print Built on a Ceasefire That Had Already Ended

July 15, 2026

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Bar chart comparing the TSX Composite's narrow daily range this week against sharper swings in major US stock indices.

US indices swung far more than the TSX this week: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off Monday on a semiconductor-driven AI spending scare, then…

The TSX Traded a Narrower Range Than Wall Street on Both Sides of This Week's Selloff and Rebound

July 15, 2026

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Bar chart showing a split market reaction across twelve assets after Iran threatened to halt regional energy exports.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened this week to halt all energy exports from the Middle East, not just shipping through the Strait of…

Iran's Threat Just Moved From Controlling the Strait to Threatening the Whole Gulf's Oil

July 15, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Step chart showing how the federal small business deduction limit drops to zero as passive investment income rises from $50,000 to $150,000.

This week's energy rally, with Canadian Natural, Suncor, and Cenovus all posting strong single-session gains, adds directly to a CCPC's adjusted aggregate investment income.

This Week's Oil Rally Is Quietly Setting Up Next Year's Small Business Deduction Grind

July 15, 2026

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Line chart showing the VIX volatility index falling to 16.50 as investors react less to each new Hormuz war escalation.

Investors have been trading through this conflict for four months, and each new escalation now moves markets less than the last.

Investors Have Stopped Flinching at the Hormuz War, and the Data Proves It

July 15, 2026

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Chart showing most major assets recovering Tuesday afternoon after Monday's Hormuz-driven market shock.

Most major assets tracked here turned positive Tuesday afternoon, a broad reversal from Monday's Hormuz-driven selloff, after Washington…

Today Split Monday's Hormuz Shock Into Two Separate Risks, and Only One of Them Got Resolved

July 14, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold spot prices from late June through mid-July 2026.

Washington dropped its proposed toll on Gulf shipping Tuesday afternoon, replacing it with trade commitments from Gulf states, even as the…

Today Split Monday's Hormuz Shock Into Two Separate Risks, and Only One of Them Got Resolved

July 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Tuesday morning stock index moves across global markets, led by South Korea's Kospi decline.

The TSX Composite closed lower Monday even as oil prices spiked sharply on the reinstated Hormuz blockade, as weakness in financials and materials offset strength in energy names.

Oil Jumped 9.6% Monday. The TSX Still Closed Lower.

July 14, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil's 20% climb since July 1 amid the Hormuz shipping blockade.

WTI crude has climbed 20% since July 1 as the US reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, the second such measure since April following this weekend's ceasefire collapse.

Iran's Blockade Barely Touches Canadian Oil. The Toll on Everyone Else Might.

July 14, 2026

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Line chart tracking US headline and core CPI inflation cooling from December 2025 through June 2026.

June's US inflation data reflects a month when the Middle East ceasefire was largely holding, conditions that reversed as oil prices jumped…

June's Inflation Print Was Genuinely Good News. It Was Also Already Out of Date.

July 14, 2026

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Line chart showing the CRA's prescribed interest rate for family loans holding steady at 3% since early 2025.

The CRA's prescribed rate for family income-splitting loans has held at 3% for five consecutive quarters, a rate that locks in at the loan's inception and applies for its full life.

The 3% Prescribed Rate Locks In Only If the Loan Is Made by September 30

July 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Brent crude oil's sharp jump to the near-flat moves in equities, bonds, and the Canadian dollar.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports, confirmed to take effect at 4 p.m.

Oil Jumped Five Percent Tuesday. Almost Nothing Else Moved.

July 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing how eight financial assets reacted the same day as the Hormuz shipping toll announcement.

Eight assets moved in the same trading session Monday after the Strait of Hormuz toll announcement, and the pattern favoured rate proxies over the traditional geopolitical hedge.

A 20 Percent Toll Moved Oil More Than the Weekend's Strikes Did, and Gold Did Not Notice

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil prices jumping 8.7 percent to 77.61 dollars in mid July 2026.

WTI crude jumped 8.7% Monday afternoon to $77.61 a barrel, roughly double the size of the overnight move that followed the weekend's fourth wave of US strikes against Iran.

A 20 Percent Toll Moved Oil More Than the Weekend's Strikes Did, and Gold Did Not Notice

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing the TSX Composite index closing within 0.9 percent of its June 2026 record high.

The TSX Composite closed at 35,305.31 Friday, up 0.298% and within 0.9% of its June 17 record of 35,629.89, after Canada's June jobs report…

324 Points From a Record, the TSX Heads Into Its Busiest 48 Hours of the Summer

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing Brent crude oil completing a three week price round trip to 79.16 dollars.

Brent crude rose 4.1% Monday to $79.16 a barrel after a fourth wave of US strikes against Iran, met by Iranian retaliation against Bahrain,…

Iran Hit Three US Allies at Once This Weekend. The Shipping Data Tells a More Measured Story Than the Rhetoric Does.

July 13, 2026

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Bar chart showing nine of twelve Federal Reserve officials favouring interest rate hikes in June 2026.

Minutes from the June 16 to 17 Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, showed nine of twelve officials favouring higher…

The Fed's Internal Vote Just Turned Hawkish. The Bank of Canada Has Not Moved. Wednesday Puts Both on Display.

July 13, 2026

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Bar chart showing steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs reaching a 50 percent ceiling rate under Section 232.

Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper can reach 50% and sit entirely outside CUSMA's protection, a gap that matters more after…

CUSMA Was Not Renewed. Business Owner Clients Now Face Annual Reviews Instead of a Six Year Horizon.

July 13, 2026

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Line chart showing gold prices falling 1.39 percent as US Treasury yields rise amid Strait of Hormuz tensions.

Gold fell 1.39% Monday to $4,063.91, even as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed following a fourth wave of US strikes over the weekend.

Gold Fell on the Worst Hormuz Escalation in Months. That Is Not a Contradiction.

July 13, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canadian energy stocks rising while financials, materials, and technology stocks fell on July 8, 2026.

The composite's decline masked a three-way split beneath it: energy gained on the same oil-driven sentiment lifting crude prices, while…

The Fed's Minutes and the Iran Escalation Landed on the Same Afternoon, and Gold Picked a Side

July 8, 2026

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Line chart comparing gold and WTI crude oil prices as they moved in opposite directions in early July 2026.

Gold fell even as Iran's declared ceasefire collapsed and its Revolutionary Guard struck more than eighty US installations in Bahrain and…

The Fed's Minutes and the Iran Escalation Landed on the Same Afternoon, and Gold Picked a Side

July 8, 2026

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Bar chart showing top TSX movers on July 7, with energy and oil-linked stocks up while two mining stocks fell sharply.

The split traces back to Wednesday's oil sanctions news, which lifted oil-linked names on the strength of WTI's jump to $74.35 while a…

TSX Energy Surged 4% While Mining Fell 8% on the Same Oil Shock, and the Divergence Is the Real Story

July 8, 2026

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