The Canadian Index

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Line chart showing gold's daily closing price holding nearly flat from June 22 to July 20, 2026 despite an intensifying Iran conflict.

Gold has moved just 1.1% over the past month even as the United States carried out its tenth consecutive night of strikes on Iran.

Gold Has Not Moved in a Month, Even as the Iran War Intensifies

July 21, 2026

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Bar chart showing TSX sector and stock moves Monday, led by declines in CIBC and National Bank.

TSX financials fell more than 1% Monday, led by a 2% decline in CIBC, even as fresh inflation data gave the Bank of Canada exactly the…

Core Inflation Broke Below Target for the First Time This Cycle. Bank Stocks Were the Only Ones That Did Not Believe It.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart showing Bank of Canada core inflation measures CPI-trim and CPI-median through June 2026.

Canada's core inflation measures broke below the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the first time this cycle in June, with CPI-trim falling to…

Core Inflation Broke Below Target for the First Time This Cycle. Bank Stocks Were the Only Ones That Did Not Believe It.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart indexing daily TSX and S&P 500 closes to 100 starting July 3, 2026.

The TSX and S&P 500 tracked each other closely from July 3 through last week before splitting on Friday and Monday.

TSX Falls 80 Points as Gold Miners Slide 3.5%. The S&P 500 Rose 0.6% on the Exact Same Day.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil prices at selected dates across five months of Iran conflict escalation.

WTI has climbed 2.1% to $83.48 as the IAEA examines a reported U.S.

Five Months of Strikes Hit Ports, Bridges and Tankers. This Weekend They Reportedly Hit a Nuclear Site.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canada's quarterly prescribed interest rate holding steady at 3 percent from 2022 through 2026.

The CRA's prescribed rate has held at 3% for a fifth consecutive quarter, its lowest sustained level since the current cycle began in 2022.

CUSMA's Deadline Passed. For Business Owner Clients, the Real Change Is That It Now Repeats Every Year.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold spot prices from June 22 to July 20, 2026.

WTI crude has climbed 2.1% to $83.48 as the conflict's confirmed U.S.

Oil Spiked Past $85 as the War's U.S. Death Toll Hit 17. It Gave Back Most of the Move by Noon.

July 20, 2026

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Bar chart showing TSX-listed energy, gold mining, and bank stocks moving in opposite directions in a single July 2026 session.

Energy names like Tourmaline Oil gained on the crude spike, but those gains were offset by losses across gold miners and Canada's big five…

TSX energy, gold miners, and bank stocks move in opposite directions

July 18, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold prices as they diverged after the US-Iran truce collapse in July 2026.

WTI crude oil climbed to $81.78 a barrel, up 16% over the week, after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and Washington reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports.

WTI crude oil and gold prices diverge after Iran truce collapse

July 18, 2026

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Bar chart showing same-day percentage moves for individual TSX-listed companies on July 17, 2026.

The TSX closed down 0.15% Thursday, a headline figure that conceals sharper moves underneath: energy strength offset weakness in gold…

Gold's Refusal to Rally on a Collapsed Ceasefire Is the Market's Verdict on This War

July 17, 2026

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Dual line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold prices during escalating Middle East conflict.

WTI crude settled near $82.15, up about 4.1%, its strongest close in a month, as the interim ceasefire between the US and Iran unravelled…

Gold's Refusal to Rally on a Collapsed Ceasefire Is the Market's Verdict on This War

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing the TSX Composite's daily close reversing from a record high over one week.

The TSX closed Thursday down 0.21%, pulling back from Wednesday's record close after the materials sector fell 3.4% to its lowest level…

The TSX Ends the Week Almost Exactly Where It Started. Getting There Took a Record High and a 76-Point Reversal.

July 17, 2026

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Bar chart showing daily barrel capacity of Gulf oil bypass pipelines exposed to a Red Sea shipping threat.

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline moves roughly 5.8 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and has been the main reason oil has…

Iran's New Threat to the Red Sea Targets the One Route That Has Kept Oil From Spiking Further

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's annual inflation rate climbing to 3.2 percent in May 2026.

Headline inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, its fastest pace since December 2023, pushing the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 inflation…

The Bank of Canada Raised Its Inflation Forecast and Cut Its Growth Forecast in the Same Report. Macklem Called It the Best News All Year.

July 17, 2026

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Line chart comparing Canada's 3-month Treasury bill yield to 5-year and 10-year bond yields.

The three-month Treasury bill that sets the CRA's quarterly prescribed rate has moved just 4 basis points since March, even as five-year…

The Prescribed Rate Has Held at 3% for Five Quarters. The Short End of the Curve Says a Sixth Is Coming.

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing BlackBerry shares falling 14.23 percent on Thursday after a months-long rally.

BlackBerry's 14.23% Thursday drop to $12.84 followed a months-long rally built on QNX automotive software momentum.

BlackBerry Fell 14 Per Cent Thursday. Its Own Executives Had Already Started Selling.

July 17, 2026

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Bar chart comparing seven benchmark assets showing a divergence across gold, oil, and financial markets on July 16, 2026.

Gold fell $52.70 and broke below $4,000 the same morning a live production-risk event hit Iran's main oil export terminal, the opposite of…

Gold Breaks Below $4,000 as Seven Assets Diverge in One Session

July 16, 2026

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Line chart tracking WTI crude oil and gold futures prices daily from June 24 to July 16, 2026.

WTI's climb from the low $70s in early July to above $80 this week tracks the Hormuz escalation timeline closely, culminating Thursday…

WTI Crude and Gold Diverge Through the Hormuz Escalation

July 16, 2026

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Bar chart showing TSX energy stocks rallying while gold mining stocks like Franco-Nevada fell in mid-July 2026.

The index's heavy energy weighting and light technology exposure let it benefit this week from a trade that hurt most other major benchmarks.

The TSX Keeps Climbing on Oil. Its Gold Miners Are Paying For It.

July 16, 2026

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Bar chart showing how oil, gold, the Canadian dollar and bond yields moved since the July 2026 Hormuz ceasefire collapse.

Kharg Island handles roughly 90 per cent of Iran's crude exports, about 1.5 million barrels a day, and Washington has threatened to strike…

The 1.5 Million Barrels That Would Disappear If Kharg Island Is Struck

July 16, 2026

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Line chart showing US year over year CPI inflation cooling to 3.5 percent in June 2026 from a 4.2 percent peak.

The cooling marks the largest monthly drop in US inflation since April 2020, yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed this week that the…

The Hawkish Talk Arrived After the Inflation Number Had Already Turned

July 16, 2026

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Line chart comparing the CRA prescribed rate to the Government of Canada five-year bond yield from June to July 2026.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed rate for family loans has held at 3 per cent for five straight quarters, set from the prior quarter's Treasury bill auctions.

The Widening Gap Between the Prescribed Rate and the Renewal Wall

July 16, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold spot prices from June 16 to July 16, 2026, showing WTI up 16 percent.

Gold and WTI crude are reacting to the same Hormuz conflict headlines in opposite directions, a split behavioural economists call mental…

The Mental Accounting Gap Between Gold and This Week's Oil Spike

July 16, 2026

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