The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent through seven consecutive decisions this year, its longest stretch of stability in the current cycle. The Federal Reserve, which has also held steady since December 2025, now faces markets pricing a rate increase as more likely than a hold, the first realistic move since its new chair took office in May. A July vote among Fed officials split nine to three, with three members already favouring an increase before the case for one strengthened further.
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