The Canadian Index

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Line chart showing the CRA prescribed interest rate holding at 3 percent for a fifth consecutive quarter.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed interest rate has held at 3% for five consecutive quarters, the lowest sustained level since 2022, with the next quarter's rate set by three-month Treasury bill auctions underway this month. A prescribed-rate loan locks in whatever rate applies when it is made, for the life of that loan, so the window matters most before any increase. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has said further rate hikes remain possible if oil-driven inflation persists, which would eventually push the prescribed rate higher too.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil declining over four sessions amid a Hormuz shipping data dispute.

Crude oil has fallen for four straight sessions, with the U.S.

Oil Falls for a Fourth Session as Hormuz Shipping Data Is Disputed

September 21, 2026

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Line chart of the TSX Composite as Canadian bond yields stayed elevated despite falling oil prices.

The Government of Canada 10-year bond yield closed near 3.94 percent in mid-September, largely unchanged from before oil began its decline,…

TSX Slides as Canadian Bond Yields Stay Elevated Despite Falling Oil

September 21, 2026

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Line chart showing the CRA prescribed interest rate for family loans holding flat at 3 percent for a sixth straight quarter.

The rate used for family income-splitting loans has stayed flat while broader inflation pressure builds.

The 3% Prescribed Rate Has Held for Six Quarters, and the Window to Lock It In Is Narrowing

September 9, 2026

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Line chart showing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve July rate hike falling from 46 percent to under 17 percent.

Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting have fallen from a peak above 46% to under 17% by July 21, per CME FedWatch data.

The Fed Odds Faded. The BoC's September Dilemma Didn't.

July 23, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart of the CRA prescribed rate by quarter, Q3 2023 to Q4 2026, with a reference line for the 3-month bill yield.

A loan made before December 31 keeps the 3% prescribed rate for its full life, provided the borrowing spouse or trust pays the interest by January 30 each year.

CRA Prescribed Rate, Q3 2023 to Q4 2026, With the 3-Month Bill Yield

October 9, 2026

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