The Canadian Index

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Line chart tracking US headline and core CPI inflation cooling from December 2025 through June 2026.

June's US inflation data reflects a month when the Middle East ceasefire was largely holding, conditions that reversed as oil prices jumped on the reinstated Hormuz blockade and gasoline costs began climbing again in July. The report landed hours before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony, where he stopped short of declaring the improvement durable. The Bank of Canada makes its own rate decision Wednesday against a very different backdrop, with markets expecting a hold even after this week's oil shock pushed Canadian yields higher.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil declining over four sessions amid a Hormuz shipping data dispute.

Crude oil has fallen for four straight sessions, with the U.S.

Oil Falls for a Fourth Session as Hormuz Shipping Data Is Disputed

September 21, 2026

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Line chart of the TSX Composite as Canadian bond yields stayed elevated despite falling oil prices.

The Government of Canada 10-year bond yield closed near 3.94 percent in mid-September, largely unchanged from before oil began its decline,…

TSX Slides as Canadian Bond Yields Stay Elevated Despite Falling Oil

September 21, 2026

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Line chart showing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve July rate hike falling from 46 percent to under 17 percent.

Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting have fallen from a peak above 46% to under 17% by July 21, per CME FedWatch data.

The Fed Odds Faded. The BoC's September Dilemma Didn't.

July 23, 2026

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Line chart comparing Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates monthly from January to September 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold this year, citing strong second-quarter growth alongside rising inflation risk.

The Bank of Canada Has Held Seven Times This Year. The Fed Just Broke Its Own Pattern.

September 23, 2026

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Line chart comparing Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates at each decision from January 2025 to September 2026.

The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16, 2026, its first increase in three years, citing persistent energy and consumer price pressure.

Why the Fed Just Broke Rank With the Bank of Canada

September 22, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada five-year bond yield climbing through August and September.

Canadian headline inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July, but the underlying number worsened: inflation…

The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To

September 21, 2026

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