The Canadian Index

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August 2026

Bar chart comparing Canada's July jobs gain against consensus with the US jobs loss against its forecast.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian employment rose 75,100 in July against a consensus estimate of roughly 17,800, a beat of more than four times the expected size.

Canada's July Jobs Beat Consensus by 4.2 Times While the US Missed Badly

August 7, 2026

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Bar chart showing ATS Corp shares falling 27 percent in a single session on Thursday, August 6, 2026.

The TSX composite closed Thursday at 36,136.31, down just 10.11 points, as only two of ten sectors finished positive.

ATS Corp's 27% Plunge Masked a Quiet Day for the TSX Ahead of a Jobs-Driven Friday

August 7, 2026

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Indexed line chart comparing WTI crude oil and gold prices, both trading above their July 7, 2026 baseline.

A draft Iran-Oman agreement covering Strait of Hormuz shipping would bar US and Israeli linked vessels and impose fees of up to 7% of cargo…

Iran's Hormuz Shipping Deal Still Needs Sign-Off From a Leader in Hiding

August 7, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates with a 137 basis point gap between them.

Canada added 75,100 jobs in July against a forecast near 16,500, while the United States lost 23,000 against an expected gain of 83,000, both released the same Friday morning.

Canada and the US Got Opposite Jobs Surprises, and the BoC-Fed Rate Gap Didn't Budge

August 7, 2026

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Bar chart of the Canadian rate ladder showing the five-year Government of Canada bond yield at 3.18 percent.

Canada added 75,100 jobs in July, more than four times the consensus forecast, pushing the unemployment rate to a two-year low of 6.4%.

A Blowout Jobs Report Barely Moved the Yield That Sets Mortgage Renewal Rates

August 7, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil rising 10.6 percent from July 7 to August 7, 2026, with a sharp mid-week reversal.

Crude oil fell sharply in early August as reports of a preliminary Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping circulated, then…

WTI Swung More Than 10% in a Week on Headlines the Availability Heuristic Explains

August 7, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil spiking on a Houthi tanker claim before easing back toward 75 dollars a barrel.

WTI crude jumped to $77.83 a barrel shortly after 5 a.m.

WTI Crude Slips Back to $75 After Thursday's Pre-Dawn Spike

August 6, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canadian financial stocks climbing to 37 percent of the TSX index since February.

Canadian financials now make up 37% of the TSX composite, the largest share in eight years and up from 31% in March, as capital has rotated…

Canadian Bank Stocks Reach 37% of the TSX Composite

August 6, 2026

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Bar chart of Wednesday's biggest TSX movers, led by a Shopify surge and a broad gold miner rally.

The TSX composite closed at a record 36,146.42 on Wednesday, up 1.0%, led by Shopify's 16.5% surge and a broad rally across gold miners…

TSX Hits a Record Close as Gold Miners and Shopify Carry the Index

August 5, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil prices near 75 dollars a barrel amid a fragile Hormuz Strait deal.

WTI crude settled at $75.22 a barrel Wednesday, down 0.73%, as the US, Iran, and Oman moved toward a 60-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI Eases Below $76 as a Fragile Hormuz Reopening Deal Nears

August 5, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's prescribed interest rate holding flat at 3 percent from 2024 through late 2026.

The Canada Revenue Agency confirmed its prescribed interest rate will stay at 3% for the fourth quarter of 2026, the sixth straight quarter…

Canada's Prescribed Interest Rate Holds at 3% for a Sixth Straight Quarter

August 6, 2026

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Line chart showing Shopify's stock price surging 17 percent after August earnings, months after falling on similar results.

Shopify shares jumped 16.98% on Wednesday to close at $144.24, after the company beat second-quarter revenue estimates with 34% year-over-year growth.

Shopify's Stock Swung 33 Points on Nearly Identical Earnings Reports

August 5, 2026

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Bar chart showing the TSX composite closing at a record 36,282.03 on August 5, 2026, its second straight record session.

Wednesday marked the index's second consecutive record close, with a gain of 480.44 points following Tuesday's 575.45-point advance, both…

TSX Closes at a Record for the Second Straight Session, Up 480 Points Wednesday

August 5, 2026

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Bar chart comparing session close changes across gold, major stock indexes, the Canadian dollar, and WTI crude on August 5, 2026.

Every major North American index closed higher Wednesday alongside gold's own 3.52 percent gain, the session's largest move of any asset…

Gold Led Every Major Asset Class Higher on August 5, While Crude Oil Stood Alone

August 5, 2026

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Bar chart ranking the TSX composite's biggest single-session movers on August 4, 2026, led by materials and dragged by energy stocks.

Materials stocks led the session's gain, up 4.7 percent, with Americas Gold and Silver finishing 18.2 percent higher as the index's top performer.

TSX Closes Up 575 Points, Its Best Session in Weeks, as Precious Metals Miners and Energy Producers Move in Opposite Directions

August 5, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil's price level falling 13.6 percent from its July 23 peak to $75.20 by August 5, 2026.

The rally priced Wednesday's Strait of Hormuz headline as a reopening, but officials describe something narrower: a 60-day negotiating…

The Market Rallied on a Strait of Hormuz Deal. The Deal Itself Is a 60-Day Negotiation Over How Much of the Strait Iran Keeps.

August 5, 2026

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Bar chart showing Canada's real GDP growth by industry in May 2026, up 0.3 percent with 13 of 20 industries expanding.

May's growth came in three times ahead of Statistics Canada's own flash estimate of 0.1 percent, and second-quarter growth is now tracking…

Growth Beat the Bank of Canada's Forecast in the Second Quarter. Core Inflation Fell to a Five-Year Low in the Same Stretch. Both Point at September 2.

August 5, 2026

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Line chart of the Canadian dollar's monthly average value against the US dollar, declining to 70.89 cents.

Statistics Canada's June trade release flagged the Canadian dollar's steepest monthly decline since October 2022, a drop of 1.7 cents US.

The Canadian Dollar Just Posted Its Largest Monthly Move Since October 2022. Two CRA Rules Move With It, and They Are Not the Same Rule.

August 5, 2026

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Bar chart of WTI crude oil's daily percentage price swings from July 6 to August 4, 2026.

Crude oil's decline reflects a pattern researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called base-rate neglect: investors treating each…

Crude Moved More Than Two Percent in Twelve of the Past Twenty-Two Sessions. That Is a Base-Rate Problem, Not a Supply Problem.

August 5, 2026

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Line chart showing the S&P/TSX Composite's daily closes through July 2026 into the Civic Holiday closure.

Canadian markets were closed Monday for the Civic Holiday, a tradition that traces to an 1869 Toronto City Council request for a midsummer…

Where the TSX Stood Heading Into the Civic Holiday Pause

August 3, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping on an Iran rejection then falling on a called-off strike.

WTI crude has round-tripped repeatedly over the past month on dueling Iran headlines, with two moves standing out on this chart.

WTI Crude's Round Trip: Rejection, Rally, Reversal

August 4, 2026

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Chart comparing same-moment moves across seven Canadian assets after Tuesday's Iran headline.

Seven Canadian markets were checked against the same 12:04 p.m.

Stocks and Gold Believed Tuesday's Iran Story. Bonds and the Loonie Did Not.

August 4, 2026

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Bar chart showing the TSX's biggest movers Friday, led by falling gold miners and TELUS's dividend cut.

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.79 percent Friday as a drop in gold dragged materials stocks lower and TELUS slid on its dividend cut, even…

The TSX Closed Friday on Falling Gold. It Reopens on Rising Gold.

August 4, 2026

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Chart showing vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz only partially recovering in mid-2026.

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below its pre-conflict pace even after a partial recovery, a gap that matters…

The Cancelled Iran Strike Reopens a Gasoline-Price Risk for the Bank of Canada

August 4, 2026

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