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Line chart tracking the market-implied probability the US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September 2026.

Market-implied odds that the US Federal Reserve holds its benchmark rate steady in September rose to about 60%, up from roughly one in three a week earlier. The shift followed a July jobs report showing the US economy shed 23,000 positions against expectations for an 85,000 gain, with a combined 103,000 stripped from the prior two months in revisions. Three Fed regional presidents had dissented in favour of a hike days earlier, a case the jobs data immediately undercut.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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