The Canadian Index

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Bar chart comparing Canadian and US inflation and growth figures ahead of the Bank of Canada's September rate decision.

Canada's core inflation cooled to 2.10%, a five-year low, even as the economy grew a stronger-than-expected 3.4% annualized in the second quarter and unemployment fell to a two-year low of 6.4%. In the United States, headline CPI held at 3.4% annually in July with core inflation at 2.5%, its slowest pace since March 2021, reducing the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. The Bank of Canada has held its own rate at 2.25% for six straight meetings, with diverging inflation and growth trends complicating its September 17 decision.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing Canada's headline and core Consumer Price Index inflation rates through July 2026.

Canadian headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% in July, up from 2.8% in June and above consensus, driven mainly by energy prices as…

Canada's Inflation Print Just Complicated the Bank of Canada's September Calculus, and the Fed Isn't Making It Easier

August 20, 2026

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate against the rising Government of Canada 10-year bond yield.

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate has held at 2.25 percent through six consecutive meetings since April, but the Government of Canada…

Government of Canada 10-Year Yield Climbs 34bps While BoC Rate Stays Put

August 21, 2026

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Line chart tracking the Bank of Canada's overnight rate against Government of Canada 10 year bond yields since 2023.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive meetings through July 2026, after nine cuts since June 2024 brought it down from a 5% peak.

The Bank of Canada Held. The Bond Market Didn't Wait.

August 14, 2026

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Line chart tracking implied odds of a Fed rate hike alongside WTI crude oil prices from July 15 to July 28, 2026.

Markets still see a meaningful chance of a US interest rate hike this week, even though oil, a key driver of the recent inflation scare,…

Fed Hike Odds Have Barely Moved Even as Oil Fell 12%. Here Is Why That Gap Matters.

July 28, 2026

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Line chart tracking Bank of Canada rate decisions from January 2025 to July 2026, showing a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25 percent.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision, even as Canada's inflation cooled to 2.8% in June…

Canada's Inflation Cooled to 2.8%. The Bank of Canada Got More Hawkish Anyway.

July 22, 2026

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Bar chart comparing same-session percentage moves across six assets following the July PCE inflation surprise.

Wednesday afternoon's hot US July PCE inflation print, which came in above forecast, reversed four sessions of falling Canadian and US bond yields within hours.

The July PCE Surprise Reversed Four Days of Falling Canadian Yields in One Afternoon

August 26, 2026

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