The Canadian Index

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Chart showing the Bank of Canada policy rate held at 2.25 percent against its 2 percent inflation target.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent for a seventh consecutive decision, a quarter point above its 2 per cent…

The Bank of Canada Has Held for Seven Meetings. Tomorrow, the Fed Is Expected to Raise.

September 15, 2026

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Chart showing the CRA prescribed interest rate holding at 3 percent for a sixth consecutive quarter.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed interest rate has held at 3 per cent for a sixth consecutive quarter, the longest stretch of…

The CRA Prescribed Rate Holds at 3% for a Sixth Straight Quarter, and the Planning Window Is Now Two Years Long

September 15, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil, up 24 percent, against a barely moved VIX volatility index over three weeks.

WTI crude has risen 24 per cent over three weeks as the Hormuz conflict widened, while the VIX volatility index gained only about 11 per…

Oil Has Risen 24 Per Cent in Three Weeks and the Fear Gauge Barely Moved

September 15, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada 10-year bond yield rising to 3.96 percent ahead of a Fed decision.

The Government of Canada 10-year bond yield has climbed since late August, tracking a similar move in the US 10-year Treasury yield, which…

Oil Is Up 19% Since the Saudi Pipeline Shut, but Gold Has Fallen 5%. That Gap Is the Real Fed Signal.

September 15, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil, up 19 percent, against gold, which has fallen, since a Saudi pipeline shutdown.

WTI crude has climbed 19 per cent since a Saudi Arabian pipeline shutdown removed one of the region's main workarounds for the Strait of…

Oil Is Up 19% Since the Saudi Pipeline Shut, but Gold Has Fallen 5%. That Gap Is the Real Fed Signal.

September 15, 2026

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Line chart showing the S&P/TSX Composite at a three-week low even as oil twice crossed $100 a barrel.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a three-week low, down 3.7 per cent from its August high, even as WTI crude settled above $100 a barrel twice in the same stretch.

The TSX Fell to a Three-Week Low the Same Week Oil Crossed $100 Twice

September 14, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil closing at $102.55 the day a tanker was struck near Qeshm Island.

WTI crude closed at a new high the same day a commercial vessel was struck near Qeshm Island, the second time in four trading sessions oil…

A Tanker Strike Near Qeshm Island Confirms Oil Above $100 Is Not a Blip

September 14, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates through 2026, both held steady until now.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent through seven consecutive decisions this year, its longest stretch of stability in the current cycle.

Two Central Banks Held Steady All Year. One of Them Is About to Move.

September 14, 2026

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Line chart showing the five-year Government of Canada bond yield climbing to a five-week high of 3.43 percent.

The five-year Government of Canada bond yield, the benchmark Canadian lenders use to price fixed mortgage offers, has climbed 21 basis points off its August low to a five-week high.

The Bond Market Just Handed 2026 Mortgage Renewals a Harder Number

September 14, 2026

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Line chart showing the VIX volatility index falling 11.2 percent even as retail investor bearishness stays elevated.

The VIX fell 11.2 per cent even as a widely followed retail sentiment survey held near 40 per cent bearish, a gap that has persisted for most of the past month.

Retail Investors Are More Afraid of the Hormuz War Than the Market Is

September 14, 2026

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Bar chart comparing same-day percentage moves across stocks, gold, the Canadian dollar and oil, showing oil as the outlier.

On the same trading session that a weekend tanker and pipeline strike pushed oil sharply higher, every other major asset shown here moved…

Oil Traded the Hormuz Attack Today. Every Other Market Traded the Fed Decision Coming Wednesday.

September 14, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil climbing to $103.10 after weekend tanker and pipeline strikes.

WTI crude climbed to a fresh high after an Iranian tanker was struck and a drone attack damaged a Saudi Arabian pipeline over the weekend,…

Oil Traded the Hormuz Attack Today. Every Other Market Traded the Fed Decision Coming Wednesday.

September 14, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil climbing 21.8 percent over a month as the Hormuz conflict widened.

WTI crude gained in nine of ten trading sessions through mid-September as a tanker war in the Strait of Hormuz widened into direct strikes on Saudi Arabian supply infrastructure.

The Week the Same Barrel of Oil Split the BoC From the Fed and the TSX From Its Own Energy Sector

September 12, 2026

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Line chart showing the S&P/TSX Composite falling to a six-week low despite rising oil prices.

The S&P/TSX Composite fell to a six-week low after a US procurement threat hit Canadian engineering and infrastructure names hard, with…

The TSX Fell to a Six-Week Low Thursday, and Oil Above $100 Could Not Stop It

September 11, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil up 25 percent since mid-August as the Hormuz tanker war escalated.

WTI crude has climbed 25 per cent since mid-August as a tanker war in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, with US strikes on Iranian vessels…

The Tanker War in the Strait of Hormuz Just Repriced Every Canadian Energy Position

September 11, 2026

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Line chart showing the gap between Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates narrowing from 250 to 150 basis points.

The gap between the Bank of Canada's and the US Federal Reserve's policy rates has narrowed sharply since January 2025, as the two central…

The BoC and the Fed Have Stopped Moving Together, and Oil Is the Reason Why

September 11, 2026

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Bar chart showing the TFSA annual contribution limit rising to $7,500 for 2027, up $500 from 2026.

Canada Revenue Agency inflation data already published makes a $500 increase to the annual Tax-Free Savings Account limit mathematically…

The 2027 TFSA Limit Is Already Decided, and So Is the Capital Gains Question Behind It

September 11, 2026

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Line chart showing the VIX volatility index climbing for four straight weeks to 17.84 in September 2026.

The VIX has risen for four consecutive weeks as the Strait of Hormuz conflict drags on, even though shipping through the chokepoint has thinned sharply since the war began.

The VIX's Quiet Four-Week Climb Is a Textbook Case of Recency Bias in Reverse

September 11, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada 10-year bond yield climbing to a two-year high of 3.94 percent.

The Government of Canada 10-year yield closed at a two-year high after retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of American goods took effect…

The Same Barrel of Oil Just Pushed the Fed Toward a Hike and the TSX Toward a Rally

September 11, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil climbing to $103.86 a barrel amid Hormuz tanker strikes in September 2026.

WTI crude has climbed more than 23 per cent over the past month as escalating tanker strikes near the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly disrupted shipping through the chokepoint.

The Same Barrel of Oil Just Pushed the Fed Toward a Hike and the TSX Toward a Rally

September 11, 2026

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Chart comparing same-session percentage moves across six major markets, including oil, gold, and Canadian bond yields.

Six major markets diverged sharply in the same session Thursday, as WTI crude traded above $100 a barrel for the first time since May while…

Oil Crosses $100 While Gold Falls: The Cross-Asset Split Behind Thursday's Headlines

September 10, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's 10-year government bond yield reaching a fresh two-year high in September 2026.

Canada's 10-year yield reached a fresh two-year-plus high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com now attribute the move to a global bond…

Canada's Bond Yield Hits a Fresh Two-Year High, But Not for the Reason Tuesday's Move Was

September 10, 2026

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Line chart showing the US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate over two weeks into September 2026.

The Canadian dollar firmed to its strongest level in two weeks even as broad selling pulled the TSX to a five-week low, with the S&P 500…

TSX Falls to a Five-Week Low as Broad Selling Outweighs the Oil Rally's Support

September 10, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil prices surging 18 percent over thirteen trading sessions.

Iran has claimed strikes on US tankers and warships this week, while the US says it hit ten Iranian tankers, as the two countries' conflict in the Persian Gulf escalates sharply.

The Tanker War Sent Oil Up 18%. The Canadian Dollar's Muted Response Is the Signal to Watch

September 10, 2026

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