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Line chart of the Cboe Volatility Index daily close from September 10 to September 29, 2026.

The VIX is near the one-year low flagged by Cboe even though the 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since mid-2007. Cboe data show investors moving out of hedges and into upside call options, a pattern consistent with probability weighting and the availability heuristic, which help explain why one absorbed rate hike became a rule. Canadian inflation data on October 19 and the Bank of Canada decision on October 28 are the next tests.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite and Cboe VIX from September 9 to October 8, 2026, with a line at the August 25 close.

The volatility index has stayed inside a narrow band despite a Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16, which suggests markets are calm.

S&P/TSX Composite Against the Cboe VIX, September 9 to October 8

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Line chart of the Cboe VIX volatility index daily close from September 8 to October 6, 2026, staying within a narrow band.

Behavioural research on habituation suggests that a repeating shock eventually stops moving a risk gauge.

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Line chart of the VIX daily close from September 2 to October 1, 2026, with an October average reference line.

The VIX sits well below its 25-year October average, which includes crisis years such as 2008, so the equity market looks calm going into a month with a reputation for volatility.

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the October Average, September 2 to October 1, 2026

October 2, 2026

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Line chart showing the VIX volatility index jumping after the Federal Reserve's September 2026 interest rate increase.

The VIX climbed from a one-month low near 14 in early September to nearly 18 after the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first…

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Line chart of the VIX daily close from September 8 to October 2, 2026, with an average line.

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Line chart comparing University of Michigan consumer sentiment with the S&P/TSX Composite over 13 months to September 2026.

Consumer sentiment and the Canadian equity index have moved in opposite directions in most months of the past year.

Consumer Sentiment Falls While the TSX Rises

September 28, 2026

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Charts and data on this site are provided for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Each chart reflects the source and period indicated on it and may not represent current market conditions.

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