The Canadian Index

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September 2026

Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, August 25 to September 25, 2026, showing a wide range and a sharp midweek drop.

The index finished the week close to where it started, but its biggest move came from materials, not energy, breaking the oil-driven pattern of the previous two months.

TSX Ends the Week Flat as Oil Loses Its Grip

September 26, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil prices, September 8 to 25, 2026, easing to about $92.55 from a September 10 peak.

Crude slipped on reports that Washington and Tehran were weighing a phased arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and on signs that…

WTI Crude Slips to a Weekly Low on Hormuz Deal Reports

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of USD/CAD from September 12 to 25, 2026, rising steadily after the September 16 Federal Reserve rate increase.

The slide in the Canadian dollar began after the Federal Reserve's mid-September rate increase and continued through nearly every session that followed.

USD/CAD Climbs to a Seven-Week High Since the Fed Hike

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of USD/CAD, September 12 to 24, 2026, rising from about 1.386 to 1.414 as the Canadian dollar weakened.

The loonie fell on a day when oil rose, which shows the currency is currently following interest rate differentials, not energy prices.

Canadian Dollar Weakens Even as Oil Rises

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil prices, September 8 to 24, 2026, falling from a September 10 peak above $100.

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a small fraction of its pre-crisis level, yet crude has eased well below its…

WTI Crude Eases Despite the Strait of Hormuz Closure

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of the Government of Canada 10-year bond yield from September 8 to 24, 2026, returning to its September high.

The yield climbed back after the Federal Reserve raised rates and the Bank of Canada did not, leaving the gap between the two policy rates…

Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Returns to Its September High

September 25, 2026

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Chart of the CRA prescribed interest rate holding at 3% for six quarters, plotted against the Bank of Canada overnight rate.

The prescribed rate is recalculated each quarter from short-term Treasury bill auction yields and rounded up to a whole percentage point,…

CRA Prescribed Rate Holds at 3% for a Sixth Quarter

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, September 8 to 24, 2026, showing a September 22 high then a sharp drop.

A hawkish Federal Reserve decision and a sudden reversal in metals prices hit mining shares, producing the steepest single-session decline in more than three months.

TSX Drops Sharply Midweek Amid Rate Divergence

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield, August 24 to September 24, 2026, climbing from about 4.7% to above 5.1%.

The yield rose after a strong flash business activity reading and a weak five-year auction pointed to further Federal Reserve tightening.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches Its Highest Since 2007

September 24, 2026

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Bar chart of September 24, 2026 same-day percentage moves in stock indexes, oil, gold and USD/CAD, with oil leading.

A report that US and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil while North American equities finished close to flat.

Oil Rises and the Canadian Dollar Falls on the Same Afternoon

September 24, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, late August to September 23, 2026, swinging around a flat moving average.

Base metal shares drove both the Tuesday gain and the Wednesday reversal, as copper retreated from near-record levels once the US dollar…

TSX Falls as Base Metals Reverse Their Rally

September 24, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil prices, August 31 to September 24, 2026, peaking above $100 on September 10 before easing.

Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days if US military pressure eases, but markets treated it as a conditional proposal in…

WTI Crude Holds Near $92 on Hormuz Reopening Offer

September 24, 2026

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Step chart of Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates, January 2025 to September 2026, showing the two paths diverging.

Both central banks cut through 2025 before separating in September, when the Federal Reserve raised its target range on concerns that energy-driven inflation was broadening.

Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve Policy Rates Diverge

September 24, 2026

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Column chart of the Canadian lifetime capital gains exemption limit rising from $800,000 in 2014 to $1,275,000 in 2026.

The exemption shelters gains on qualifying small business shares and farm or fishing property, and it operates separately from the capital…

Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption Climbs to $1.275 Million

September 24, 2026

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Line chart of the Cboe VIX volatility index from late August to September 23, 2026, hovering in the mid-teens.

The VIX estimates how much the options market expects stocks to move over the next thirty days, so it can stay quiet while individual sessions are violent.

VIX Stays Subdued While the TSX Swings

September 24, 2026

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Line chart of S&P/TSX Composite daily closes from August 20 to September 23, 2026, ending with a sharp drop.

The S&P/TSX Composite fell on September 23, 2026, even as crude oil rallied, because losses in gold miners outweighed modest gains in energy stocks.

TSX Composite Falls Despite an Oil Rally as Gold Stocks Slide

September 23, 2026

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Bar chart of percentage moves in crude oil, gold, silver, TSX sectors and the Canadian dollar on September 23, 2026.

Brent crude jumped on September 23, 2026, yet the Canadian dollar weakened for a third session as rising US rate expectations outweighed oil.

Brent Jumps While the Canadian Dollar and TSX Fall in the September 23 Session

September 23, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite rebounding from a September 16 low to a one-month high on September 22, 2026.

The S&P/TSX Composite rebounded to a one-month high on September 22, 2026, recovering from a September 16 low set on the day the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate.

The TSX Hit a One-Month High on Tech and Base Metals While Energy Keeps Falling

September 23, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude front-month futures rising to a September 15 peak, then falling into September 18, 2026.

WTI crude surged in late August and early September 2026 on concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, peaking on September 15 before diplomatic signals began to emerge.

The Oil Market Has Priced a Hormuz Outcome That Has Not Happened Yet

September 23, 2026

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Line chart comparing Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates monthly from January to September 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold this year, citing strong second-quarter growth alongside rising inflation risk.

The Bank of Canada Has Held Seven Times This Year. The Fed Just Broke Its Own Pattern.

September 23, 2026

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Bar chart of the annual Tax-Free Savings Account contribution limit for each year from 2009 to 2026.

The annual Tax-Free Savings Account limit is set to rise to $7,500 in 2027, based on the Canada Revenue Agency's indexation formula and inflation data already published.

The 2027 TFSA Limit Is Already Locked In at $7,500

September 23, 2026

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Line chart of the Nasdaq Composite climbing through the September 16 Fed rate hike to September 22, 2026.

The Nasdaq Composite has kept climbing since the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16, 2026, its first increase in…

Investors Keep Buying the Rally Wall Street Just Called a Late-Stage Bubble

September 23, 2026

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Line chart of copper futures rising for seven straight sessions through September 22, 2026.

Copper futures rose for a seventh straight session on September 22, 2026, supported by warnings that global mined output could fall this…

Copper Extends a Seven-Session Rally on Supply Deficit Warnings

September 22, 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil futures sliding for six straight sessions after a September 10, 2026 peak.

WTI crude closed lower for a sixth straight session on September 22, 2026, after peaking on September 10, as diplomatic signals from the UN…

WTI Crude Falls for Six Straight Sessions on Hormuz De-escalation Hopes

September 22, 2026

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