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Line chart of the Government of Canada 2-year bond yield from September 2 to October 2, 2026, with the policy rate.

The 2-year yield sits well above the policy rate, which has not changed since October 2025, so bond markets are pricing higher rates. The Bank held on September 2 and, according to Reuters, dropped language saying rates were at the appropriate level, citing upside inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile August brought job losses and slower wage growth, and some banks raised fixed mortgage rates after longer-term yields climbed.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of Canadian headline CPI, CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation from August 2025 to August 2026, with a 2% target line.

Core inflation has returned to roughly the Bank of Canada's 2% target, the mirror image of August 2025 when headline inflation was the lower reading.

Canada Headline CPI and Core Inflation Against the 2% Target

October 8, 2026

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year and 5-year benchmark yields from August 21 to October 5, 2026.

Bond investors have priced in tighter policy well ahead of the central bank.

Government of Canada 2-Year and 5-Year Yields Since the Pre-War Close

October 7, 2026

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Line chart of Canadian total CPI with CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common core measures, July 2025 to August 2026.

Three Bank of Canada core measures, trim, median and common, are shown against total CPI.

Canada CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, July 2025 to August 2026

October 9, 2026

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Bar chart of Canada's monthly net employment change from September 2025 to August 2026, with the August 2026 bar showing a decline.

Employment fell in four of the twelve months shown and averaged a gain of about 18,000 a month, so the August loss stands out within a mostly positive year.

Canada Monthly Net Employment Change, September 2025 to August 2026

October 6, 2026

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Line chart of Canadian headline CPI with CPI-trim and CPI-median core inflation, year over year, from August 2025 to August 2026.

A year earlier the relationship ran the other way, with headline inflation sitting about a point below the CPI-trim core measure.

Canada Headline CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, August 2026

October 6, 2026

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Step chart of the Bank of Canada policy rate since June 2024 alongside the 2-year government bond yield level.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate for seven straight decisions, while the bond market has pushed the 2-year yield well above it,…

Bank of Canada Policy Rate Versus the Government of Canada 2-Year Yield, June 2024 to October 2026

October 2, 2026

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Charts and data on this site are provided for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Each chart reflects the source and period indicated on it and may not represent current market conditions.

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