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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year and 5-year benchmark yields from August 21 to October 5, 2026.

Bond investors have priced in tighter policy well ahead of the central bank. The overnight rate remains at 2.25%, set on September 2, but the two-year yield sits just over a full percentage point above it, and the five-year yield closed at 2.67% on February 27, the last session before the war began. Headline inflation of 3.0% and a weakening labour market leave the October 28 decision finely balanced.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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