The Canadian Index

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Line chart of Canadian total CPI with CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common core measures, July 2025 to August 2026.

Three Bank of Canada core measures, trim, median and common, are shown against total CPI. Headline inflation is largely a gasoline story, and the Bank said inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2%. The two-year Government of Canada yield sits a full percentage point above the policy rate, which prices a higher path than core inflation alone suggests. The September labour force survey was due the same morning.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year and 5-year benchmark yields from August 21 to October 5, 2026.

Bond investors have priced in tighter policy well ahead of the central bank.

Government of Canada 2-Year and 5-Year Yields Since the Pre-War Close

October 7, 2026

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Step chart of the Bank of Canada policy rate since June 2024 alongside the 2-year government bond yield level.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate for seven straight decisions, while the bond market has pushed the 2-year yield well above it,…

Bank of Canada Policy Rate Versus the Government of Canada 2-Year Yield, June 2024 to October 2026

October 2, 2026

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Line chart of Canada's annual consumer price inflation rate by month from July 2025 to August 2026.

Headline inflation sits at the top of the Bank of Canada's inflation control range, while core measures remain well below that ceiling, so…

Canada Consumer Price Index Inflation, Year Over Year, July 2025 to August 2026

September 29, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada five-year bond yield climbing through August and September.

Canadian headline inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July, but the underlying number worsened: inflation…

The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To

September 21, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's year-over-year CPI inflation easing to 2.8 percent in June 2026.

June's cooler reading was driven by a temporary drop in gasoline prices tied to a ceasefire that has since collapsed, with Brent crude back…

June's Cooler Inflation Print Rested on a Ceasefire That Has Already Broken

July 24, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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