Core inflation has returned to roughly the Bank of Canada's 2% target, the mirror image of August 2025 when headline inflation was the lower reading. Gasoline explains the difference: excluding it, inflation was 2.2%. The Federal Reserve has already raised rates to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% while the Bank of Canada remains at 2.25%, and the two-year Government of Canada yield sits about a point above the policy rate.
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The 2-year yield sits well above the policy rate, which has not changed since October 2025, so bond markets are pricing higher rates.
Government of Canada 2-Year Bond Yield, September 2 to October 2, 2026
October 5, 2026
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Three Bank of Canada core measures, trim, median and common, are shown against total CPI.
Canada CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, July 2025 to August 2026
October 9, 2026
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Bond investors have priced in tighter policy well ahead of the central bank.
Government of Canada 2-Year and 5-Year Yields Since the Pre-War Close
October 7, 2026
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Employment fell in four of the twelve months shown and averaged a gain of about 18,000 a month, so the August loss stands out within a mostly positive year.
Canada Monthly Net Employment Change, September 2025 to August 2026
October 6, 2026
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A year earlier the relationship ran the other way, with headline inflation sitting about a point below the CPI-trim core measure.
Canada Headline CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, August 2026
October 6, 2026
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The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate for seven straight decisions, while the bond market has pushed the 2-year yield well above it,…
Bank of Canada Policy Rate Versus the Government of Canada 2-Year Yield, June 2024 to October 2026
October 2, 2026
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