The Canadian Index

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Line chart of the VIX daily close from September 2 to October 1, 2026, with an October average reference line.

The VIX sits well below its 25-year October average, which includes crisis years such as 2008, so the equity market looks calm going into a month with a reputation for volatility. The S&P/TSX Composite has finished higher in most Octobers since 2001. The strain sits in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2002, and links the calendar worry to availability bias.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of the VIX daily close from September 8 to October 2, 2026, with an average line.

The VIX closed below its average for the period even though Treasury yields posted their worst quarter this century, with the 10-year yield…

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), September 8 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite and Cboe VIX from September 9 to October 8, 2026, with a line at the August 25 close.

The volatility index has stayed inside a narrow band despite a Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16, which suggests markets are calm.

S&P/TSX Composite Against the Cboe VIX, September 9 to October 8

October 9, 2026

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Line chart of S&P/TSX Composite daily closes from September 15 to September 30, 2026, with June 30 and August 31 baselines.

The same set of closes gives two opposite readings depending on the starting point.

S&P/TSX Composite: Monthly and Quarterly Returns From the Same Closes

October 1, 2026

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Line chart comparing University of Michigan consumer sentiment with the S&P/TSX Composite over 13 months to September 2026.

Consumer sentiment and the Canadian equity index have moved in opposite directions in most months of the past year.

Consumer Sentiment Falls While the TSX Rises

September 28, 2026

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Line chart showing the VIX volatility index holding a narrow range through late August 2026 despite trade war headlines.

The VIX has held a narrow range for most of August even as Ottawa confirmed C$27.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs and Washington unveiled a sweeping new Iran sanctions campaign.

The VIX Has Not Moved in Three Weeks. That Is Not the Same as Markets Judging the Trade War Small.

August 26, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite from September 1 to October 7, 2026, ending in a dashed afternoon print.

The final point is a 2:46 PM Eastern print from October 7 rather than an official close, drawn dashed because the closing level was not available at publication.

S&P/TSX Composite With the October 7 Midday Print

October 7, 2026

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