The Canadian Index

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Bar chart of the Canadian rate ladder showing the five-year Government of Canada bond yield at 3.18 percent.

Canada added 75,100 jobs in July, more than four times the consensus forecast, pushing the unemployment rate to a two-year low of 6.4%. Yet the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, the number that actually prices a five-year fixed mortgage, rose just one basis point on the news. The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed rate held at 3% for a fifth straight quarter. Clients renewing five-year mortgages originated around 2021, when that yield sat near 1%, still face a materially higher rate this week's data did not create.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Bar chart comparing Canada's July jobs gain against consensus with the US jobs loss against its forecast.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian employment rose 75,100 in July against a consensus estimate of roughly 17,800, a beat of more than four times the expected size.

Canada's July Jobs Beat Consensus by 4.2 Times While the US Missed Badly

August 7, 2026

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Bar chart ranking six assets by their same-day reaction to July jobs data, led by the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD fell further on August 7 than any of five other assets moved in either direction, even as the five-year Government of Canada yield…

The Canadian Dollar Led a Six-Asset Reaction to the Same Jobs Data

August 7, 2026

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Line chart comparing Canada's 3-month Treasury bill yield to 5-year and 10-year bond yields.

The three-month Treasury bill that sets the CRA's quarterly prescribed rate has moved just 4 basis points since March, even as five-year…

The Prescribed Rate Has Held at 3% for Five Quarters. The Short End of the Curve Says a Sixth Is Coming.

July 17, 2026

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Line chart comparing the CRA prescribed rate to the Government of Canada five-year bond yield from June to July 2026.

The Canada Revenue Agency's prescribed rate for family loans has held at 3 per cent for five straight quarters, set from the prior quarter's Treasury bill auctions.

The Widening Gap Between the Prescribed Rate and the Renewal Wall

July 16, 2026

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Line chart comparing Canada's headline and ex-gasoline CPI year-over-year from January through July 2026.

Canada's headline CPI rose 3.0% in July, edging above forecasts, almost entirely on a jump in gasoline prices tied to Middle East supply concerns.

Canada CPI Points to a BoC Hold as Bond Yields Climb

August 18, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Canadian mortgage and bond rate benchmarks, including the five-year fixed mortgage rate, as of mid-August 2026.

The best available uninsured five-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed to about 4.24%, even though the Bank of Canada's overnight rate has held at 2.25% since October.

The 2026 Mortgage Renewal Wall Just Got a Higher Price Tag

August 13, 2026

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