The Canadian Index

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-, 5- and 10-year bond yields from March to October 2026, with the policy rate marked.

Bond markets are pricing rate increases that the central bank has not delivered. The overnight rate target stayed at 2.25% throughout the period, while two-year and five-year yields rose to peaks on September 23, the five-year at 3.69%. Fixed mortgage rates take their cue from the five-year yield, so the repricing reaches households before any change in the policy rate.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year and 5-year benchmark yields from August 21 to October 5, 2026.

Bond investors have priced in tighter policy well ahead of the central bank.

Government of Canada 2-Year and 5-Year Yields Since the Pre-War Close

October 7, 2026

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Line chart of Canadian total CPI with CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common core measures, July 2025 to August 2026.

Three Bank of Canada core measures, trim, median and common, are shown against total CPI.

Canada CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, July 2025 to August 2026

October 9, 2026

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Step chart of the Bank of Canada policy rate since June 2024 alongside the 2-year government bond yield level.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate for seven straight decisions, while the bond market has pushed the 2-year yield well above it,…

Bank of Canada Policy Rate Versus the Government of Canada 2-Year Yield, June 2024 to October 2026

October 2, 2026

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Line chart of the Government of Canada 2-year bond yield from September 2 to October 2, 2026, with the policy rate.

The 2-year yield sits well above the policy rate, which has not changed since October 2025, so bond markets are pricing higher rates.

Government of Canada 2-Year Bond Yield, September 2 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite from August 17 to October 9, 2026, showing its decline from the August 25 record close.

The decline from the late-August record spans two trade actions: the U.S.

S&P/TSX Composite Index and Its Decline From the August 25 Record

October 9, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite daily close from August 17 to October 9, 2026, ending below its August 25 level.

The decline from the August 25 close spans the United States tariffs imposed on August 22 and the Canadian counter-tariffs of September 8.

S&P/TSX Composite From August 17 to October 9, Before Thanksgiving

October 12, 2026

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