The Canadian Index

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent through six straight decisions since 2025.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions since October 2025, with swap markets pricing next Wednesday's seventh hold as close to a formality. Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate put second-quarter growth at an annualized 3.4%, well above the Bank's own 2.5% forecast, reinforcing the case for continued stability. The more consequential rate event this week is US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, three weeks ahead of the next Fed meeting.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart showing CME FedWatch odds for a September Fed rate hike holding near 80 percent.

CME FedWatch odds for Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision swung between 10.7% and 46.5% over the two weeks leading up to the meeting, an unusually wide range for a single rate call.

Today's Fed Decision Is a Coin Flip. September's Already Isn't.

July 29, 2026

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Line chart tracking implied odds of a Fed rate hike alongside WTI crude oil prices from July 15 to July 28, 2026.

Markets still see a meaningful chance of a US interest rate hike this week, even though oil, a key driver of the recent inflation scare,…

Fed Hike Odds Have Barely Moved Even as Oil Fell 12%. Here Is Why That Gap Matters.

July 28, 2026

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Monthly chart showing Canada's core inflation measure falling to a five-year low of 1.8 percent in June.

Odds of a Wednesday Federal Reserve rate hike had climbed toward one in three by late last week, up from roughly 18% on July 2, as…

Canada's Core Inflation Falls to a Five-Year Low

July 27, 2026

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Line chart tracking Bank of Canada rate decisions from January 2025 to July 2026, showing a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25 percent.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision, even as Canada's inflation cooled to 2.8% in June…

Canada's Inflation Cooled to 2.8%. The Bank of Canada Got More Hawkish Anyway.

July 22, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent for six consecutive decisions from April 2024 through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions, following nine cuts made between June 2024 and October 2025.

The BoC Meets Five Days After Warsh Speaks and Two Weeks Before the Fed Decides

August 17, 2026

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