The Canadian Index

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent through six straight decisions since 2025.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions since October 2025, with swap markets pricing next Wednesday's seventh hold as close to a formality. Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate put second-quarter growth at an annualized 3.4%, well above the Bank's own 2.5% forecast, reinforcing the case for continued stability. The more consequential rate event this week is US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, three weeks ahead of the next Fed meeting.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates monthly from January to September 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold this year, citing strong second-quarter growth alongside rising inflation risk.

The Bank of Canada Has Held Seven Times This Year. The Fed Just Broke Its Own Pattern.

September 23, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada five-year bond yield climbing through August and September.

Canadian headline inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July, but the underlying number worsened: inflation…

The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To

September 21, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates through 2026, both held steady until now.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent through seven consecutive decisions this year, its longest stretch of stability in the current cycle.

Two Central Banks Held Steady All Year. One of Them Is About to Move.

September 14, 2026

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Line chart showing CME FedWatch odds for a September Fed rate hike holding near 80 percent.

CME FedWatch odds for Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision swung between 10.7% and 46.5% over the two weeks leading up to the meeting, an unusually wide range for a single rate call.

Today's Fed Decision Is a Coin Flip. September's Already Isn't.

July 29, 2026

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Line chart tracking implied odds of a Fed rate hike alongside WTI crude oil prices from July 15 to July 28, 2026.

Markets still see a meaningful chance of a US interest rate hike this week, even though oil, a key driver of the recent inflation scare,…

Fed Hike Odds Have Barely Moved Even as Oil Fell 12%. Here Is Why That Gap Matters.

July 28, 2026

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Monthly chart showing Canada's core inflation measure falling to a five-year low of 1.8 percent in June.

Odds of a Wednesday Federal Reserve rate hike had climbed toward one in three by late last week, up from roughly 18% on July 2, as…

Canada's Core Inflation Falls to a Five-Year Low

July 27, 2026

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