The Canadian Index

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Monthly chart showing Canada's core inflation measure falling to a five-year low of 1.8 percent in June.

Odds of a Wednesday Federal Reserve rate hike had climbed toward one in three by late last week, up from roughly 18% on July 2, as officials cited energy-driven inflation risk tied to the Middle East conflict. Monday's oil price collapse removed the newest piece of evidence behind that hawkish case less than 48 hours before the Fed's decision. The Bank of Canada releases its own summary of deliberations from its July 15 decision, a sixth consecutive hold, the same Wednesday.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada five-year bond yield climbing through August and September.

Canadian headline inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July, but the underlying number worsened: inflation…

The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To

September 21, 2026

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Line chart tracking implied odds of a Fed rate hike alongside WTI crude oil prices from July 15 to July 28, 2026.

Markets still see a meaningful chance of a US interest rate hike this week, even though oil, a key driver of the recent inflation scare,…

Fed Hike Odds Have Barely Moved Even as Oil Fell 12%. Here Is Why That Gap Matters.

July 28, 2026

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Line chart comparing Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates monthly from January to September 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold this year, citing strong second-quarter growth alongside rising inflation risk.

The Bank of Canada Has Held Seven Times This Year. The Fed Just Broke Its Own Pattern.

September 23, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates through 2026, both held steady until now.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent through seven consecutive decisions this year, its longest stretch of stability in the current cycle.

Two Central Banks Held Steady All Year. One of Them Is About to Move.

September 14, 2026

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent through six straight decisions since 2025.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions since October 2025, with swap markets pricing…

Why the BoC's September 2 Hold Is the Least Interesting Rate Decision This Week

August 25, 2026

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate and the Federal Reserve target band through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate for a sixth consecutive meeting on July 15, citing energy driven inflation pressures that are…

The Bank of Canada Held at 2.25% for a Sixth Meeting. The Fed Held Too, but Three Votes Said No.

July 31, 2026

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