The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive meetings through July 2026, after nine cuts since June 2024 brought it down from a 5% peak. Government of Canada 10 year yields have nonetheless climbed back near where the policy rate sat in late 2024, as Canada's economy grew 3.4% annualized last quarter against the Bank's own 2.5% forecast. Cooling US inflation, meanwhile, has pulled Fed September hike odds down to roughly 40%, a divergence the bond market is already pricing.
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