The Canadian Index

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Line chart tracking the Bank of Canada's overnight rate against Government of Canada 10 year bond yields since 2023.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive meetings through July 2026, after nine cuts since June 2024 brought it down from a 5% peak. Government of Canada 10 year yields have nonetheless climbed back near where the policy rate sat in late 2024, as Canada's economy grew 3.4% annualized last quarter against the Bank's own 2.5% forecast. Cooling US inflation, meanwhile, has pulled Fed September hike odds down to roughly 40%, a divergence the bond market is already pricing.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of the Government of Canada 10-year bond yield, daily from September 2 to October 1, 2026, with a market-pricing marker.

Canadian economic data argued for patience, with flat July growth and the slowest manufacturing expansion in six months, yet the 10-year…

Government of Canada 10-Year Bond Yield, September 2 to October 1, 2026

October 3, 2026

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Line chart tracking Bank of Canada rate decisions from January 2025 to July 2026, showing a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25 percent.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision, even as Canada's inflation cooled to 2.8% in June…

Canada's Inflation Cooled to 2.8%. The Bank of Canada Got More Hawkish Anyway.

July 22, 2026

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Line chart of Brent crude, the S&P/TSX Composite and gold futures rebased to 100 at the August 31 close.

Brent was the only one of the three to finish above its starting level, while the index and gold both fell.

Brent, TSX and Gold Rebased to the August 31 Close

September 30, 2026

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year, 5-year and 10-year benchmark yields, August 31 to September 29, 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh straight time, yet Canadian yields rose as United States yields surged.

Government of Canada Benchmark Yields, September 2026

September 30, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite daily close for September 2026, with a shaded slide and a dashed line at the August 25 record.

The index fell for the month even though Brent crude gained and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, because rising United States bond yields outweighed oil and gold.

S&P/TSX Composite Daily Close Through September 2026

September 30, 2026

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year, 5-year and 10-year benchmark yields through August 2026, with a shaded span at the August 21 peak.

Canadian yields drifted higher through August even though the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% and had no decision to make during the month.

Government of Canada Benchmark Yields, August 2026

August 31, 2026

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