The Canadian Index

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Line chart comparing Canada's headline and core Consumer Price Index inflation rates through July 2026.

Canadian headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% in July, up from 2.8% in June and above consensus, driven mainly by energy prices as tensions between the United States and Iran resumed. Core inflation, which the Bank of Canada watches to look through volatile components like gasoline, moved far less over the same period. The gap between the two measures complicates the read on the Bank's September rate decision.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate against the rising Government of Canada 10-year bond yield.

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate has held at 2.25 percent through six consecutive meetings since April, but the Government of Canada…

Government of Canada 10-Year Yield Climbs 34bps While BoC Rate Stays Put

August 21, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Canadian and US inflation and growth figures ahead of the Bank of Canada's September rate decision.

Canada's core inflation cooled to 2.10%, a five-year low, even as the economy grew a stronger-than-expected 3.4% annualized in the second…

Canada's Economy Is Outrunning the Bank of Canada's Own Forecast

August 13, 2026

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Line chart tracking implied odds of a Fed rate hike alongside WTI crude oil prices from July 15 to July 28, 2026.

Markets still see a meaningful chance of a US interest rate hike this week, even though oil, a key driver of the recent inflation scare,…

Fed Hike Odds Have Barely Moved Even as Oil Fell 12%. Here Is Why That Gap Matters.

July 28, 2026

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Line chart tracking Bank of Canada rate decisions from January 2025 to July 2026, showing a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25 percent.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision, even as Canada's inflation cooled to 2.8% in June…

Canada's Inflation Cooled to 2.8%. The Bank of Canada Got More Hawkish Anyway.

July 22, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, held at 2.25 percent, against inflation surprises from September 2025 to July 2026.

Canada's second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, well above the Bank of Canada's 2.5% forecast, while unemployment fell to 6.4% in…

Canada's Own Numbers Argue for a Hike. The Bank Will Hold Anyway.

August 24, 2026

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Line chart tracking Canada's year over year consumer price inflation rising to 3.0 percent through July 2026.

Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven almost entirely by a 26% jump in gasoline prices tied to Middle East shipping disruptions.

Canada's Inflation Rose to 3.0 Percent. The Bank of Canada Is Still More Likely to Cut Than Hike.

August 19, 2026

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