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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, held at 2.25 percent, against inflation surprises from September 2025 to July 2026.

Canada's second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, well above the Bank of Canada's 2.5% forecast, while unemployment fell to 6.4% in July and headline inflation rose to 3.0%, partly on Hormuz-linked gasoline prices. Despite that mix of hot growth and rising inflation, the Bank is still expected to hold its rate at 2.25% on September 2, a seventh consecutive hold. Two unresolved events land within days: Canada's own September 8 retaliatory tariffs and an August 28 Jackson Hole speech from a leading Fed contender.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Charts and data on this site are provided for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Each chart reflects the source and period indicated on it and may not represent current market conditions.

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