The Canadian Index

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Line chart comparing Canada's headline and ex-gasoline CPI year-over-year from January through July 2026.

Canada's headline CPI rose 3.0% in July, edging above forecasts, almost entirely on a jump in gasoline prices tied to Middle East supply concerns. Ex-gasoline inflation has held near 2.2% for three straight months, a reading close enough to target that it points toward a Bank of Canada hold on September 2. That signal could be overridden by bond markets, however, after the 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart tracking Canada's year over year consumer price inflation rising to 3.0 percent through July 2026.

Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven almost entirely by a 26% jump in gasoline prices tied to Middle East shipping disruptions.

Canada's Inflation Rose to 3.0 Percent. The Bank of Canada Is Still More Likely to Cut Than Hike.

August 19, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Bar chart showing nine of twelve Federal Reserve officials favouring interest rate hikes in June 2026.

Minutes from the June 16 to 17 Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, showed nine of twelve officials favouring higher…

The Fed's Internal Vote Just Turned Hawkish. The Bank of Canada Has Not Moved. Wednesday Puts Both on Display.

July 13, 2026

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent for a fifth consecutive decision.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate steady through five consecutive decisions, its longest pause since the current cutting cycle…

The Last Number Before the Bank of Canada Goes Dark

July 10, 2026

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, held at 2.25 percent, against inflation surprises from September 2025 to July 2026.

Canada's second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, well above the Bank of Canada's 2.5% forecast, while unemployment fell to 6.4% in…

Canada's Own Numbers Argue for a Hike. The Bank Will Hold Anyway.

August 24, 2026

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