The Canadian Index

All content, including the full-resolution download, is provided at no charge.

Step chart showing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent for a fifth consecutive decision.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate steady through five consecutive decisions, its longest pause since the current cutting cycle began, with the next announcement set for July 15. Statistics Canada's June jobs report, released the same morning this blackout period begins, is the final data point the Bank will see before deciding. Government of Canada bond yields have eased but remain well above pre-war levels, keeping fixed mortgage renewal costs elevated for households rolling over in the months ahead.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

Download Hi-Res JPEG (No Watermark)
Line chart comparing Canada's headline and ex-gasoline CPI year-over-year from January through July 2026.

Canada's headline CPI rose 3.0% in July, edging above forecasts, almost entirely on a jump in gasoline prices tied to Middle East supply concerns.

Canada CPI Points to a BoC Hold as Bond Yields Climb

August 18, 2026

View chart & download
Bar chart showing nine of twelve Federal Reserve officials favouring interest rate hikes in June 2026.

Minutes from the June 16 to 17 Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, showed nine of twelve officials favouring higher…

The Fed's Internal Vote Just Turned Hawkish. The Bank of Canada Has Not Moved. Wednesday Puts Both on Display.

July 13, 2026

View chart & download
Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate against the rising Government of Canada 10-year bond yield.

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate has held at 2.25 percent through six consecutive meetings since April, but the Government of Canada…

Government of Canada 10-Year Yield Climbs 34bps While BoC Rate Stays Put

August 21, 2026

View chart & download
Line chart tracking the market-implied probability the US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September 2026.

Market-implied odds that the US Federal Reserve holds its benchmark rate steady in September rose to about 60%, up from roughly one in three a week earlier.

The Fed's Three Dissenters Wanted a Hike. Canada's Data Made Their Case, America's Broke It.

August 10, 2026

View chart & download
Line chart tracking the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Wednesday, but three of twelve voting members dissented in favor of a hike,…

The Fed Held Rates Steady. Markets Just Priced In an Eleven Point Jump in September's Odds.

July 30, 2026

View chart & download
Step chart showing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate holding steady at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions into July 2026.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions, the endpoint of a cutting cycle that began in June 2024.

Fed Hike Odds Jumped to 80% in a Week. The Bank of Canada's Math Has Not Changed

July 21, 2026

View chart & download