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Line chart showing the gap between Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates narrowing from 250 to 150 basis points.

The gap between the Bank of Canada's and the US Federal Reserve's policy rates has narrowed sharply since January 2025, as the two central banks respond differently to the same oil price shock. The Bank of Canada has held its rate steady for nine straight months, while US futures markets have moved to price roughly seventy per cent odds of a Federal Reserve hike this month. Elevated crude is feeding both Canadian headline inflation and US producer prices from the same source, even as the two central banks lean in opposite directions.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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