October 2026

Indexing each benchmark to its own September average puts a higher-priced Brent and a lower-priced WTI on a common footing.

Brent and WTI Against Their September Averages

October 6, 2026

The Federal Reserve has raised rates while the Bank of Canada has held, leaving the top of the American policy range well above the Canadian rate.

Policy Rates and 10-Year Yields in Canada and the United States

October 6, 2026

The Canadian index fell while the three major United States indexes rose, with the Nasdaq leading on gains in mega-cap technology.

North American Index Moves on October 5, 2026

October 6, 2026

The International Energy Agency's emergency reserve release has slowed sharply since its largest-ever action in May.

IEA Emergency Oil Stock Release Pace, May to July 2026

October 6, 2026

Brent has held at elevated levels while WTI trails it by an unusually wide margin, with Brent closing at or above $100 on 12 of the 20 sessions shown.

Brent and WTI Daily Closes, September 8 to October 5

October 6, 2026

Employment fell in four of the twelve months shown and averaged a gain of about 18,000 a month, so the August loss stands out within a mostly positive year.

Canada Monthly Net Employment Change, September 2025 to August 2026

October 6, 2026

A year earlier the relationship ran the other way, with headline inflation sitting about a point below the CPI-trim core measure.

Canada Headline CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, August 2026

October 6, 2026

The Chief Actuary's June 2026 report cleared the lower contribution rate, finding that 9.5% still exceeds the minimum needed for 2028 to 2033.

Projected CPP Contributions and Assets Under the 9.5% Rate Versus 9.9%

October 6, 2026

The base Canada Pension Plan contribution rate falls on January 1, 2027, with the employee and employer rates each dropping by 0.20 percentage points.

CPP Contribution Saving From the 2027 Rate Cut by Earnings Level

October 6, 2026

The index has closed below its August 25 level on every session since, yet it has not recorded a single move of 2% in 33 sessions.

S&P/TSX Composite Slide From the August 25 Close, to October 2

October 6, 2026

Oil has been the loud part of the market since early September, with WTI moving 2% or more on 13 of 19 sessions.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Closes, September 8 to October 5

October 6, 2026

The TSX has lagged a roughly flat S&P 500 since September 4, which reflects the Canadian bond market pricing a more hawkish Bank of Canada than bank economists forecast.

TSX Composite Versus S&P 500, Indexed to September 4, 2026

October 5, 2026

The premium measures how far two-year yields sit above each central bank's policy rate, so a larger premium means the bond market expects tighter policy.

Two-Year Yield Premium Over Policy Rate: Canada and the US, September 8 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

The index remains several per cent below its August closing high, but volume has stayed within a narrow band on nearly every session, which…

S&P/TSX Composite Daily Price Action and Volume, September 4 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

Gulf oil exports have recovered to roughly their pre-war volumes, so the risk premium in Brent has shifted from missing barrels to attacks on ships.

Brent Crude Futures Daily Close, September 7 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

The 2-year yield sits well above the policy rate, which has not changed since October 2025, so bond markets are pricing higher rates.

Government of Canada 2-Year Bond Yield, September 2 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

Rates are combined federal and Ontario marginal rates applied to capital gains at the inclusion rate, including Ontario surtaxes, so the…

Ontario Capital Gains Tax Rates by Income Bracket, 2026

October 5, 2026

The VIX closed below its average for the period even though Treasury yields posted their worst quarter this century, with the 10-year yield…

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), September 8 to October 2, 2026

October 5, 2026

Canadian economic data argued for patience, with flat July growth and the slowest manufacturing expansion in six months, yet the 10-year…

Government of Canada 10-Year Bond Yield, September 2 to October 1, 2026

October 3, 2026

Converting the S&P 500 into Canadian dollars adds the effect of USD/CAD, which has risen since August 26.

TSX Versus S&P 500 in Canadian and US Dollars, Indexed to August 26, 2026

October 2, 2026

Equities priced relief after a weak September payrolls report, but Treasury yields closed higher anyway, so the bond market did not treat the miss as a reason to expect lower rates.

US Treasury Par Yields: 2-Year and 10-Year, August 26 to October 2, 2026

October 2, 2026

A global bond selloff drove the fourth straight daily decline, with the US 10-year yield touching its highest level since 2002.

S&P/TSX Composite Daily Close, August 26 to October 1, 2026

October 2, 2026

Oil fell sharply from its September peak without any visible progress in US-Iran talks, because supply is recovering faster than diplomacy.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Daily Close, September 2 to October 1, 2026

October 2, 2026

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate for seven straight decisions, while the bond market has pushed the 2-year yield well above it,…

Bank of Canada Policy Rate Versus the Government of Canada 2-Year Yield, June 2024 to October 2026

October 2, 2026