The Canadian Index

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Line chart of the VIX volatility index and its 5-day average from September 16 to October 15, 2026.

Consumer sentiment and market volatility are sending different signals. The University of Michigan October preliminary index read 46.3, within 1.5 points of its May low of 44.8, yet the VIX sits in the bottom fifth of its 52-week range of 13.38 to 35.30. Mental accounting explains how a household can track budget pressure and portfolio gains separately, so each moves without the other.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of the VIX volatility index from September 14 to October 12, 2026, with its 21-session average marked.

The index sits near the bottom of its yearly range while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is close to zero.

VIX Volatility Index, September 14 to October 12, 2026

October 12, 2026

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Line chart of the VIX volatility index from September 14 to October 13, 2026, with the tanker attack window shaded.

The VIX stayed near 15 through a week in which Reuters counted at least 12 tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, an example of what behavioural finance calls disaster myopia.

VIX Volatility Index and the Hormuz Tanker Attack Window

October 13, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite and Cboe VIX from September 9 to October 8, 2026, with a line at the August 25 close.

The volatility index has stayed inside a narrow band despite a Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16, which suggests markets are calm.

S&P/TSX Composite Against the Cboe VIX, September 9 to October 8

October 9, 2026

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Line chart of the VIX daily close from September 2 to October 1, 2026, with an October average reference line.

The VIX sits well below its 25-year October average, which includes crisis years such as 2008, so the equity market looks calm going into a month with a reputation for volatility.

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the October Average, September 2 to October 1, 2026

October 2, 2026

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Line chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index daily close from September 18 to October 16, 2026, with a bear market line.

Eight straight losses in the semiconductor index came as ASML and TSMC both reported record demand.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, September 18 to October 16, 2026

October 16, 2026

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Line chart comparing University of Michigan consumer sentiment with the S&P/TSX Composite over 13 months to September 2026.

Consumer sentiment and the Canadian equity index have moved in opposite directions in most months of the past year.

Consumer Sentiment Falls While the TSX Rises

September 28, 2026

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