The Canadian Index

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Bar chart comparing Canada's July jobs gain against consensus with the US jobs loss against its forecast.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian employment rose 75,100 in July against a consensus estimate of roughly 17,800, a beat of more than four times the expected size. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a loss of 23,000 jobs the same morning against a forecast gain of 83,000. USD/CAD fell 0.53% to its lowest level since June on the divergence, while the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, the rate that actually prices a mortgage renewal, moved far less than the currency reaction implied.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Bar chart ranking six assets by their same-day reaction to July jobs data, led by the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD fell further on August 7 than any of five other assets moved in either direction, even as the five-year Government of Canada yield…

The Canadian Dollar Led a Six-Asset Reaction to the Same Jobs Data

August 7, 2026

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Line chart tracking the S&P/TSX Composite through July's ceasefire collapse, near-record rally, and late-month pullback to a 35,226 close.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed July at 35,226, up 1.06% for the month, a modest headline figure that conceals sharp intra-month swings.

S&P/TSX Composite closes July up 1.06% after a volatile month

July 31, 2026

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Line chart comparing Brent and WTI crude oil prices through July's four-leg rally to $85.47.

Brent and WTI crude both surged in July, with WTI ending the month at $85.47, up 23.0%, after round-tripping from a five-month low near $68.74.

WTI and Brent crude surge in July as the Iran ceasefire collapses

July 31, 2026

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Line chart of Brent crude, the S&P/TSX Composite and gold futures rebased to 100 at the August 31 close.

Brent was the only one of the three to finish above its starting level, while the index and gold both fell.

Brent, TSX and Gold Rebased to the August 31 Close

September 30, 2026

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year, 5-year and 10-year benchmark yields, August 31 to September 29, 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh straight time, yet Canadian yields rose as United States yields surged.

Government of Canada Benchmark Yields, September 2026

September 30, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite daily close for September 2026, with a shaded slide and a dashed line at the August 25 record.

The index fell for the month even though Brent crude gained and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, because rising United States bond yields outweighed oil and gold.

S&P/TSX Composite Daily Close Through September 2026

September 30, 2026

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