The Canadian Index

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Bar chart showing Canada's monthly real GDP growth from July 2025 through the June 2026 advance estimate.

Canadian economic growth has come in well ahead of the Bank of Canada's own forecast heading into its September 2 rate decision. Second quarter GDP is tracking a 3.4 percent annualized pace, against the Bank's 2.5 percent projection, a sharp turnaround from the first quarter's contraction. The Government of Canada 5-year bond yield climbed 20 basis points in July to 3.26 percent as markets priced in reduced odds of a near-term rate cut.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart tracking the market-implied probability the US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September 2026.

Market-implied odds that the US Federal Reserve holds its benchmark rate steady in September rose to about 60%, up from roughly one in three a week earlier.

The Fed's Three Dissenters Wanted a Hike. Canada's Data Made Their Case, America's Broke It.

August 10, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Line chart comparing Canada's headline and ex-gasoline CPI year-over-year from January through July 2026.

Canada's headline CPI rose 3.0% in July, edging above forecasts, almost entirely on a jump in gasoline prices tied to Middle East supply concerns.

Canada CPI Points to a BoC Hold as Bond Yields Climb

August 18, 2026

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Line chart tracking the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Wednesday, but three of twelve voting members dissented in favor of a hike,…

The Fed Held Rates Steady. Markets Just Priced In an Eleven Point Jump in September's Odds.

July 30, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's year-over-year CPI inflation easing to 2.8 percent in June 2026.

June's cooler reading was driven by a temporary drop in gasoline prices tied to a ceasefire that has since collapsed, with Brent crude back…

June's Cooler Inflation Print Rested on a Ceasefire That Has Already Broken

July 24, 2026

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada's overnight rate holding steady at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions into July 2026.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions, the endpoint of a cutting cycle that began in June 2024.

Fed Hike Odds Jumped to 80% in a Week. The Bank of Canada's Math Has Not Changed

July 21, 2026

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