The Canadian Index

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Bar chart showing Canada's real GDP growth by industry in May 2026, up 0.3 percent with 13 of 20 industries expanding.

May's growth came in three times ahead of Statistics Canada's own flash estimate of 0.1 percent, and second-quarter growth is now tracking near 3.0 percent annualized, roughly half a point above the Bank of Canada's own forecast. Core inflation fell to a five-year low in the same month, with trim at 1.8 percent and median at 1.9 percent. The Bank has held its rate at 2.25 percent for six straight decisions, with the next announcement September 2, preceded by July's jobs report on August 7.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart tracking the Bank of Canada's overnight rate against Government of Canada 10 year bond yields since 2023.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive meetings through July 2026, after nine cuts since June 2024 brought it down from a 5% peak.

The Bank of Canada Held. The Bond Market Didn't Wait.

August 14, 2026

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Line chart comparing Canada's headline and core Consumer Price Index inflation rates through July 2026.

Canadian headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% in July, up from 2.8% in June and above consensus, driven mainly by energy prices as…

Canada's Inflation Print Just Complicated the Bank of Canada's September Calculus, and the Fed Isn't Making It Easier

August 20, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Canadian and US inflation and growth figures ahead of the Bank of Canada's September rate decision.

Canada's core inflation cooled to 2.10%, a five-year low, even as the economy grew a stronger-than-expected 3.4% annualized in the second…

Canada's Economy Is Outrunning the Bank of Canada's Own Forecast

August 13, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada 10-year bond yield declining over four sessions in late August 2026.

Canada's 10-year yield has eased for four straight sessions since touching its highest level since April 2024 on August 21.

Bond Yields Fell Four Straight Sessions Despite Strong July Data. The Trade War Is Winning the Argument.

August 26, 2026

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Bar chart comparing same-session percentage moves across six assets following the July PCE inflation surprise.

Wednesday afternoon's hot US July PCE inflation print, which came in above forecast, reversed four sessions of falling Canadian and US bond yields within hours.

The July PCE Surprise Reversed Four Days of Falling Canadian Yields in One Afternoon

August 26, 2026

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Bar chart showing three Canadian banks' adjusted net income growth accelerating in Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings.

Scotiabank, BMO, and National Bank each posted accelerating year-over-year adjusted net income growth this week, with each report topping the one before it.

The July PCE Surprise Reversed Four Days of Falling Canadian Yields in One Afternoon

August 26, 2026

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