The Canadian Index

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Bar chart showing Canada's real GDP growth by industry in May 2026, up 0.3 percent with 13 of 20 industries expanding.

May's growth came in three times ahead of Statistics Canada's own flash estimate of 0.1 percent, and second-quarter growth is now tracking near 3.0 percent annualized, roughly half a point above the Bank of Canada's own forecast. Core inflation fell to a five-year low in the same month, with trim at 1.8 percent and median at 1.9 percent. The Bank has held its rate at 2.25 percent for six straight decisions, with the next announcement September 2, preceded by July's jobs report on August 7.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of the Government of Canada 10-year bond yield, daily from September 2 to October 1, 2026, with a market-pricing marker.

Canadian economic data argued for patience, with flat July growth and the slowest manufacturing expansion in six months, yet the 10-year…

Government of Canada 10-Year Bond Yield, September 2 to October 1, 2026

October 3, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's unemployment rate holding at 6.4 percent even as August job losses mounted.

Canada shed 41,700 jobs in August against expectations for a gain of roughly 15,000, one of the sharpest misses of the year and a reversal…

Canada Lost 41,700 Jobs in August, Two Days After the Bank of Canada Signalled It Might Hike

September 4, 2026

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Line chart tracking the Bank of Canada's overnight rate against Government of Canada 10 year bond yields since 2023.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive meetings through July 2026, after nine cuts since June 2024 brought it down from a 5% peak.

The Bank of Canada Held. The Bond Market Didn't Wait.

August 14, 2026

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Line chart of Canadian total CPI with CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common core measures, July 2025 to August 2026.

Three Bank of Canada core measures, trim, median and common, are shown against total CPI.

Canada CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, July 2025 to August 2026

October 9, 2026

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year and 5-year benchmark yields from August 21 to October 5, 2026.

Bond investors have priced in tighter policy well ahead of the central bank.

Government of Canada 2-Year and 5-Year Yields Since the Pre-War Close

October 7, 2026

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Bar chart of Canada's monthly net employment change from September 2025 to August 2026, with the August 2026 bar showing a decline.

Employment fell in four of the twelve months shown and averaged a gain of about 18,000 a month, so the August loss stands out within a mostly positive year.

Canada Monthly Net Employment Change, September 2025 to August 2026

October 6, 2026

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