The Canadian Index

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite daily close from August 31 to October 14, 2026, with the August 31 close marked.

The index went nowhere in a hurry. Daily moves summed without regard to direction total 21.2 percentage points, against a net change of negative 1.9% since August 31. Fed hike odds swung from almost 70% in late September to near 20% by October 6, then to between 42% and 50% after U.S. CPI. Behavioural research calls the tendency to read such releases as a trend belief in the law of small numbers.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart of the United States 30-year Treasury yield daily close from September 8 to October 7, 2026.

The long-bond yield rose in nine of eleven sessions, with no single day moving it by more than 10 basis points.

US 30-Year Treasury Yield Daily Close, September 8 to October 7

October 8, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, September 8 to 24, 2026, showing a September 22 high then a sharp drop.

A hawkish Federal Reserve decision and a sudden reversal in metals prices hit mining shares, producing the steepest single-session decline in more than three months.

TSX Drops Sharply Midweek Amid Rate Divergence

September 25, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite daily close from September 10 to October 16, 2026, with the 35,000 level in view.

Resource shares drove a week in which Canadian rate markets signalled economic slack.

S&P/TSX Composite Daily Close, September 10 to October 16, 2026

October 16, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite from September 4 to October 7, 2026, with a five-session average and October 1 low.

The index closed at its lowest level since at least September 4, with banks and gold stocks leading the decline as bullion fell.

S&P/TSX Composite With Five-Session Average, September 4 to October 7

October 8, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite from September 1 to October 7, 2026, ending in a dashed afternoon print.

The final point is a 2:46 PM Eastern print from October 7 rather than an official close, drawn dashed because the closing level was not available at publication.

S&P/TSX Composite With the October 7 Midday Print

October 7, 2026

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Line chart of the Cboe VIX volatility index daily close from September 1 to October 7, 2026, ending nearly unchanged.

The VIX barely moved on October 7 even as Canadian equities fell on rate fears, because the index is built from United States large-cap…

VIX Daily Close on the Day Rate Fear Hit the TSX

October 7, 2026

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