The Canadian Index

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Line chart showing the S&P/TSX Composite closing higher after a volatile week driven by war-related headlines.

Kahneman and Tversky's loss aversion research helps explain the sequence: losses recorded during a decline carry roughly twice the psychological weight of an equivalent gain that follows, so a rebound can feel like an afterthought rather than a correction. Odean and Barber's research on attention-driven trading adds that individual investors are most likely to sell on exactly the high-profile news days that later mark short-term lows. The same war headlines that drove the earlier slide also powered this recovery, with energy and precious metals stocks leading the gains.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing University of Michigan consumer sentiment with the S&P/TSX Composite over 13 months to September 2026.

Consumer sentiment and the Canadian equity index have moved in opposite directions in most months of the past year.

Consumer Sentiment Falls While the TSX Rises

September 28, 2026

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Line chart of the Cboe VIX volatility index from late August to September 23, 2026, hovering in the mid-teens.

The VIX estimates how much the options market expects stocks to move over the next thirty days, so it can stay quiet while individual sessions are violent.

VIX Stays Subdued While the TSX Swings

September 24, 2026

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Bar chart of the TSX Composite's daily percentage swings from August 10 to September 4, 2026, showing an unusually volatile six-session stretch.

The TSX has broken its own recent volatility average in five of the last six sessions, a stretch triggered by Washington's tariffs on…

Why This Week Feels Worse Than the TSX Actually Performed

September 8, 2026

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Line chart showing the VIX volatility index holding a narrow range through late August 2026 despite trade war headlines.

The VIX has held a narrow range for most of August even as Ottawa confirmed C$27.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs and Washington unveiled a sweeping new Iran sanctions campaign.

The VIX Has Not Moved in Three Weeks. That Is Not the Same as Markets Judging the Trade War Small.

August 26, 2026

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Line chart showing the TSX Composite rising 4.0 percent from mid-July to mid-August 2026 despite four separate pullbacks tied to Strait of Hormuz headlines.

The TSX composite gained 4.0% from mid-July through mid-August 2026, even as four separate pullbacks tied to Strait of Hormuz headlines interrupted the climb along the way.

Four Hormuz Dips Recovered in a Month. Today Tests Whether the Pattern Holds.

August 17, 2026

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Line chart showing Shopify's stock price surging 17 percent after August earnings, months after falling on similar results.

Shopify shares jumped 16.98% on Wednesday to close at $144.24, after the company beat second-quarter revenue estimates with 34% year-over-year growth.

Shopify's Stock Swung 33 Points on Nearly Identical Earnings Reports

August 5, 2026

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