The Canadian Index

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Line chart showing Canada's monthly CPI inflation rate rising to 3.0 percent in July 2026 from 2.8 percent in June.

Canadian inflation climbed to 3.0 per cent in July from 2.8 per cent in June, moving further above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. The central bank attributes most of that gap to gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict, with inflation excluding fuel running closer to 2.2 per cent. Markets still price roughly 99 per cent odds the Bank holds its rate at 2.25 per cent at its September 2 decision, treating the increase as an external cost shock rather than domestic demand pressure.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Bar chart of Canada's monthly net employment change from September 2025 to August 2026, with the August 2026 bar showing a decline.

Employment fell in four of the twelve months shown and averaged a gain of about 18,000 a month, so the August loss stands out within a mostly positive year.

Canada Monthly Net Employment Change, September 2025 to August 2026

October 6, 2026

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Line chart of Canadian headline CPI with CPI-trim and CPI-median core inflation, year over year, from August 2025 to August 2026.

A year earlier the relationship ran the other way, with headline inflation sitting about a point below the CPI-trim core measure.

Canada Headline CPI Against Bank of Canada Core Measures, August 2026

October 6, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's unemployment rate holding at 6.4 percent even as August job losses mounted.

Canada shed 41,700 jobs in August against expectations for a gain of roughly 15,000, one of the sharpest misses of the year and a reversal…

Canada Lost 41,700 Jobs in August, Two Days After the Bank of Canada Signalled It Might Hike

September 4, 2026

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Line chart showing Canadian inflation nearing the Bank of Canada's policy rate as the rate-inflation gap narrows.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2, the seventh consecutive decision at that level since an October 29,…

The Bank of Canada Has Held Seven Times, and Its Inflation Cushion Is Nearly Gone

September 3, 2026

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Line chart tracking the Bank of Canada's policy rate holding at 2.25% through its seventh straight decision.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% today, a seventh straight hold.

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% for a Seventh Straight Decision

September 2, 2026

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Line chart of Canadian headline CPI, CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation from August 2025 to August 2026, with a 2% target line.

Core inflation has returned to roughly the Bank of Canada's 2% target, the mirror image of August 2025 when headline inflation was the lower reading.

Canada Headline CPI and Core Inflation Against the 2% Target

October 8, 2026

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