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Line chart of two-year yield premiums over policy rates for Canada and the US, September 8 to October 2, 2026.

The premium measures how far two-year yields sit above each central bank's policy rate, so a larger premium means the bond market expects tighter policy. Canada's premium has been larger than the US premium on every session in the period, though the gap has narrowed. The premium is linked to oil and has faded as Brent eased. The step in the US line on September 16 is the Federal Reserve rate increase itself, not a market move.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Charts and data on this site are provided for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Each chart reflects the source and period indicated on it and may not represent current market conditions.

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© 2026 The Canadian Index. A public reference library of Canadian financial market charts, updated daily from public market data. See the Legal and Usage Terms page for full disclaimers.