The TSX has lagged a roughly flat S&P 500 since September 4, which reflects the Canadian bond market pricing a more hawkish Bank of Canada than bank economists forecast. Canadian two-year yields already match the most hawkish bank forecast for 2027. The data end on October 2 because October 5 closing levels were not confirmed at publication.
This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.
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The premium measures how far two-year yields sit above each central bank's policy rate, so a larger premium means the bond market expects tighter policy.
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Brent crude rose 5.1% over the week to $87.84 a barrel as an escalating Iran conflict pushed oil back toward its earlier highs.
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Six major assets all finished the week higher, but energy markets moved roughly five times faster than equities or the Canadian dollar.
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Three sessions decided the week.
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October 10, 2026
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United States indexes closed at records on October 6 while the Canadian index remained about 3.5% below its own record, a gap that opened…
TSX, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Rebased to the August 26 Close
October 7, 2026
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Brent was the only one of the three to finish above its starting level, while the index and gold both fell.
Brent, TSX and Gold Rebased to the August 31 Close
September 30, 2026
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