Crude oil's decline reflects a pattern researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called base-rate neglect: investors treating each Hormuz de-escalation as a first-time event rather than checking how often earlier ones actually held. Twelve of the past twenty-two trading sessions moved two percent or more, a frequency that fits headline-driven repricing better than a genuine change in physical oil supply. A similar rally-and-reversal already played out in late June, when WTI touched $70.34 on the same kind of optimism before climbing back to $87.01 by July 23.
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