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Bar chart of WTI crude oil's daily percentage price swings from July 6 to August 4, 2026.

Crude oil's decline reflects a pattern researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called base-rate neglect: investors treating each Hormuz de-escalation as a first-time event rather than checking how often earlier ones actually held. Twelve of the past twenty-two trading sessions moved two percent or more, a frequency that fits headline-driven repricing better than a genuine change in physical oil supply. A similar rally-and-reversal already played out in late June, when WTI touched $70.34 on the same kind of optimism before climbing back to $87.01 by July 23.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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