WTI fell more than eight per cent Monday, its sharpest single session drop since the Strait of Hormuz disruption began in late February, after the United States and Iran quietly paused strikes over the weekend. Gold, which has traded in tandem with oil's war premium for five months, barely moved, a divergence suggesting the de-escalation is being priced as specific to oil. The Federal Reserve's implied odds of a Wednesday rate hike collapsed to roughly 14%, down from 38% on Friday, as the same diplomacy reshaped rate expectations.
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