The Canadian Index

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Bar chart showing Canada's merchandise trade balance widening to a 3.9 billion dollar surplus in June 2026.

Statistics Canada reported that the country's merchandise trade surplus widened to $3.9 billion in June, the largest monthly surplus in more than four years, as total exports rose to a record $77.5 billion. A 16.5% jump in metal and mineral exports, driven by a surge in gold shipments, offset a 10% drop in energy exports as oil prices eased. The data lands ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 rate decision, adding a stronger trade picture to what the Bank weighs after holding its rate at 2.25% since July.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart showing Canada's annual inflation rate climbing to 3.2 percent in May 2026.

Headline inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, its fastest pace since December 2023, pushing the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 inflation…

The Bank of Canada Raised Its Inflation Forecast and Cut Its Growth Forecast in the Same Report. Macklem Called It the Best News All Year.

July 17, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil jumping 16.4 percent since its July 6 low after the Hormuz blockade resumed.

WTI reversed three weeks of decline in just two trading sessions after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 13.

Two Central Banks Report to the Public This Morning, and They Are Reading the Same Oil Shock Differently

July 15, 2026

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Bar chart comparing Canada's July jobs gain against consensus with the US jobs loss against its forecast.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian employment rose 75,100 in July against a consensus estimate of roughly 17,800, a beat of more than four times the expected size.

Canada's July Jobs Beat Consensus by 4.2 Times While the US Missed Badly

August 7, 2026

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Bar chart ranking six assets by their same-day reaction to July jobs data, led by the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD fell further on August 7 than any of five other assets moved in either direction, even as the five-year Government of Canada yield…

The Canadian Dollar Led a Six-Asset Reaction to the Same Jobs Data

August 7, 2026

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate and the Federal Reserve target band through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate for a sixth consecutive meeting on July 15, citing energy driven inflation pressures that are…

The Bank of Canada Held at 2.25% for a Sixth Meeting. The Fed Held Too, but Three Votes Said No.

July 31, 2026

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Line chart showing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve July rate hike falling from 46 percent to under 17 percent.

Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting have fallen from a peak above 46% to under 17% by July 21, per CME FedWatch data.

The Fed Odds Faded. The BoC's September Dilemma Didn't.

July 23, 2026

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