The Canadian Index

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Line chart of Canada's year-over-year consumer price inflation by month from January 2025 to August 2026.

Headline inflation has reached the ceiling of the Bank of Canada's control range for a second month, driven mainly by gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, and on the core measures the Bank follows, price growth is much lower, and July GDP was flat. That combination makes a hold the base case for October 28, with September CPI on October 19 as the main data point before the decision.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Step chart of the Bank of Canada overnight rate target, March 2025 to September 2026, holding at 2.25% for seven decisions.

The Bank has paused because the core measures it prioritizes, which strip out volatile items such as gasoline and travel, sit close to its…

Bank of Canada Holds Its Rate for a Seventh Straight Decision

September 28, 2026

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Line chart showing the Government of Canada five-year bond yield climbing through August and September.

Canadian headline inflation held at 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July, but the underlying number worsened: inflation…

The Bond Market Already Moved Before the Bank of Canada Has To

September 21, 2026

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Step chart of the Bank of Canada's overnight rate from September 2024 to September 2026, showing seven consecutive holds at 2.25 percent.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate for a seventh straight decision on September 2, the longest stretch without a move since the current cutting cycle began.

The Bank of Canada Has Held for Seven Straight Decisions, and Inflation Just Made the Eighth Harder

September 8, 2026

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Line chart of Canada's year-over-year CPI from January to July 2026, rising to 3.0 percent in July against the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target.

Canada's headline CPI rose 3.0% year over year in July, tracking a Hormuz-driven gasoline-price spike that pushed inflation to a war-era peak in May before easing.

The Bank of Canada Meets Wednesday With Growth Ahead of Forecast and the Gasoline Channel Reopened

August 31, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's year-over-year CPI inflation easing to 2.8 percent in June 2026.

June's cooler reading was driven by a temporary drop in gasoline prices tied to a ceasefire that has since collapsed, with Brent crude back…

June's Cooler Inflation Print Rested on a Ceasefire That Has Already Broken

July 24, 2026

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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