The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, naming gasoline-driven inflation as its reason for caution, and crude has kept climbing since. Core inflation measures have held closer to 2% even as the headline figure stays elevated, a gap the Bank explicitly flagged as a risk to watch. With Q2 growth solid and unemployment easing, the Bank has room to hold, but September's inflation data will land with oil already higher than it was at the last decision.
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