The Canadian Index

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Line chart showing Canadian headline consumer price inflation running above the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, naming gasoline-driven inflation as its reason for caution, and crude has kept climbing since. Core inflation measures have held closer to 2% even as the headline figure stays elevated, a gap the Bank explicitly flagged as a risk to watch. With Q2 growth solid and unemployment easing, the Bank has room to hold, but September's inflation data will land with oil already higher than it was at the last decision.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Line chart comparing WTI crude oil prices to the Bank of Canada's 70 to 75 dollar forecast assumption band.

The Bank of Canada's July 15 Monetary Policy Report projected inflation returning to 2% by early 2027, built on oil settling between $70 and $75 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's Path Back to 2% Assumed Oil at $70 to $75. It's Trading Near $84.

July 20, 2026

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Line chart showing WTI crude oil declining over four sessions amid a Hormuz shipping data dispute.

Crude oil has fallen for four straight sessions, with the U.S.

Oil Falls for a Fourth Session as Hormuz Shipping Data Is Disputed

September 21, 2026

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Line chart of the TSX Composite as Canadian bond yields stayed elevated despite falling oil prices.

The Government of Canada 10-year bond yield closed near 3.94 percent in mid-September, largely unchanged from before oil began its decline,…

TSX Slides as Canadian Bond Yields Stay Elevated Despite Falling Oil

September 21, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's year-over-year CPI inflation easing to 2.8 percent in June 2026.

June's cooler reading was driven by a temporary drop in gasoline prices tied to a ceasefire that has since collapsed, with Brent crude back…

June's Cooler Inflation Print Rested on a Ceasefire That Has Already Broken

July 24, 2026

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Line chart showing Canada's headline inflation climbing to 3.2 percent through May 2026, driven mainly by energy prices.

Canada's headline inflation climbed from 1.8 percent in February to 3.2 percent by May, a run the Bank of Canada has attributed largely to…

The Bank of Canada Has Looked Through Two Oil Shocks This Year Already. A Third Just Arrived Before July 15.

July 8, 2026

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Line chart of the daily dollar gap between Brent and WTI closes from September 7 to October 5, 2026.

The gap between the two oil benchmarks has widened to roughly double its September average and is the widest of the 20 sessions in the series.

Brent-WTI Price Gap Against Its September Average

October 6, 2026

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