The Canadian Index

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Chart comparing the Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve policy rates with a 137 basis point gap between them.

Canada added 75,100 jobs in July against a forecast near 16,500, while the United States lost 23,000 against an expected gain of 83,000, both released the same Friday morning. The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate for six consecutive decisions since October 2025, and the Federal Reserve for five, with three FOMC members dissenting in April in favor of a hike. Markets priced under a 50% chance of a Fed hike next meeting, down from roughly one in three before the report.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent through six straight decisions since 2025.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions since October 2025, with swap markets pricing…

Why the BoC's September 2 Hold Is the Least Interesting Rate Decision This Week

August 25, 2026

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Step chart showing the Bank of Canada overnight rate holding at 2.25 percent for six consecutive decisions from April 2024 through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions, following nine cuts made between June 2024 and October 2025.

The BoC Meets Five Days After Warsh Speaks and Two Weeks Before the Fed Decides

August 17, 2026

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Line chart tracking the Bank of Canada's overnight rate against Government of Canada 10 year bond yields since 2023.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive meetings through July 2026, after nine cuts since June 2024 brought it down from a 5% peak.

The Bank of Canada Held. The Bond Market Didn't Wait.

August 14, 2026

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Line chart tracking the market-implied probability the US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September 2026.

Market-implied odds that the US Federal Reserve holds its benchmark rate steady in September rose to about 60%, up from roughly one in three a week earlier.

The Fed's Three Dissenters Wanted a Hike. Canada's Data Made Their Case, America's Broke It.

August 10, 2026

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Line chart comparing the Bank of Canada overnight rate and the Federal Reserve target band through July 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate for a sixth consecutive meeting on July 15, citing energy driven inflation pressures that are…

The Bank of Canada Held at 2.25% for a Sixth Meeting. The Fed Held Too, but Three Votes Said No.

July 31, 2026

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Line chart tracking the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Wednesday, but three of twelve voting members dissented in favor of a hike,…

The Fed Held Rates Steady. Markets Just Priced In an Eleven Point Jump in September's Odds.

July 30, 2026

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