Gold rose 7.2% last week to a record close near $4,400 while Brent crude fell 7.3% as traders bet a Hormuz shipping deal was close. Both moves reversed within hours of Monday's open after Iran hardened its terms for reopening the strait, sending Brent back toward $84.70. The swift reversal illustrates the availability heuristic, the bias identified by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in which the most recent, vivid data point gets mistaken for a new trend rather than a single week's noise.
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