The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% today, a seventh straight hold. Second-quarter GDP grew at a 2.5% annualized pace, yet the Bank cut its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.2%, implying a sharp expected slowdown in the second half. Governor Macklem has tied the next move explicitly to oil prices, a condition markets are currently pricing in only lightly.
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